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Sektion Epidemiologie und Biostatistik Unit of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Bericht Report 2009-2013 - Institut für Public Health Institute of ...
Sektion Epidemiologie und Biostatistik                                                  1
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                                Institut für Public Health

                                Institute of Public Health

         Sektion Epidemiologie und Biostatistik

         Unit of Epidemiology and Biostatistics

                                     Bericht ● Report

                                         2009-2013
Sektion Epidemiologie und Biostatistik Unit of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Bericht Report 2009-2013 - Institut für Public Health Institute of ...
2                                                                                                             Bericht 2009-2013
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                      Inhaltsverzeichnis ● Table of Contents

Einleitung ● Introduction ......................................................................................................... 4

1.           Forschung ● Research............................................................................................. 7
1.1.         Gemeinsame Projekte mit dem CRSN, Nouna, Burkina Faso und dem INDEPTH Network,
             Accra, Ghana ●
             Joint Projects with the CRSN, Nouna HDSS, Burkina Faso and the INDEPTH network, Accra,
             Ghana.................................................................................................................... 7
1.2.         Weitere infektionsepidemiologische Studien ●
             Further studies in infectious disease epidemiology ...................................................... 15
1.3.         Krebsepidemiologie ●
             Cancer epidemiology .............................................................................................. 18
1.4.         Sozialepidemiologie und Migrantenforschung ●
             Social epidemiology and migrant research ................................................................. 21
1.5.         Die Nationale Kohorte (NaKo) ●
             The German National Cohort (NaKo) ........................................................................ 25
1.6.         Biostatistische und epidemiologische Methoden ●
             Biostatistical and epidemiological methods ................................................................ 26
1.7.         Epidemiologie des Schlaganfalls ●
             Stroke Epidemiology .............................................................................................. 28
1.8.         Gesundheit von Müttern und Kindern ●
             Maternal and child health ........................................................................................ 30
1.9.         Sonstige Projekte ●
             Other projects ....................................................................................................... 35

2.           Lehre ● Teaching .................................................................................................. 37
2.1.         HeiCuMed ............................................................................................................. 37
2.2.         Wahlfach „Global Health“ ....................................................................................... 40
2.3.         Graduiertenkolleg 793 ● PhD program 793 .............................................................. 40
2.4.         MSc International Health ........................................................................................ 42
2.5.         Weitere Vorlesungen ● Other Lectures ...................................................................... 43

3.           Weitere Aktivitäten ● Further activities ................................................................ 46
3.1.         Tätigkeiten in Gremien, als Editor oder Reviewer ●
             Council memberships, reviewing and editorial tasks .................................................... 46
3.2.         Organisation von Tagungen und Workshops ●
             Organisation of meetings and workshops .................................................................. 48

4.           Mitarbeiter, Kooperationspartner, Drittmittel ●
             Staff, Collaborators, Funding ................................................................................ 54
4.1.         Mitarbeiter ● Staff ................................................................................................. 54
4.2.         Frühere Mitarbeiter ● Previous staff members ............................................................ 59
4.3.         Drittmittel ● Grants................................................................................................ 60

5.           Publikationen, Hochschulschriften ● Publications and Theses .............................. 63
5.1.         Publikationen 2009-2013 ● Publications 2009-2013 .................................................... 63
5.2.         Hochschulschriften ● Academic theses ...................................................................... 70
Sektion Epidemiologie und Biostatistik Unit of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Bericht Report 2009-2013 - Institut für Public Health Institute of ...
Sektion Epidemiologie und Biostatistik                                                                3
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Vorwort ● Preface
Das Fach Epidemiologie ist an der Medizi-                  Epidemiology         is
nischen Fakultät der Universität Heidelberg                represented at the
innerhalb des Instituts für Public Health                  Medical Faculty of
repräsentiert. Dieser Bericht beschreibt die               Heidelberg
Aktivitäten     der Sektion Epidemiologie und              University as a unit
Biostatistik in den Jahren 2009 bis 2013.                  within the Institute
                                                           of Public Health. In
Die Sektion hat im Berichtszeitraum eine Reihe
                                                           this     report    the
von Veränderungen erfahren. Insgesamt ist die
                                                           activities of the unit
Sektion stark gewachsen – bei gleichbleibender
                                                           “Epidemiology      and
institutioneller Förderung. Das Drittmitte-
                                                           Biostatistics” in the
laufkommen hat sich deutlich gesteigert, und
                                                           years     2009    until
dazu haben eine Reihe von Mitarbeitern
                                                           2013 are described.
beigetragen.
                                                           The unit experienced a number of major
Zwei Mitarbeiter - Herr Dr. Heribert Ramroth
                                                           changes within the reporting period. Overall,
und Frau Dr. Sabine Gabrysch - haben sich
                                                           the unit has strongly increased in size – with
habilitiert   bzw.    ihre    Habilitationsschrift
                                                           constant institutional support. This was only
eingereicht, für einen weiteren, Herr Dr. Volker
                                                           possible through increased external funding, to
Winkler, ist der Weg dahin nicht mehr weit.
                                                           which several members of the unit have
Alle haben selbständig Drittmittelprojekte
                                                           contributed.
eingeworben, wobei die Nachwuchsgruppe von
Frau       Gabrysch     im     Rahmen         des          Two members of the unit completed their
Förderprogramms Epidemiologie des BMBF                     “habilitation” resp. submitted the thesis, Dr.
besonders hervorzuheben ist.                               Heribert Ramroth and Dr. Sabine Gabrysch,
                                                           and another member, Dr. Volker Winkler, will
Aus Anlass der Erstellung dieses Berichts
                                                           follow soon. All of them have independently
möchte    ich   mich   herzlich bei   allen
                                                           acquired research funding. The junior group of
Kooperationspartnern für die angenehme
                                                           Dr. Gabrysch under the funding scheme of the
Zusammenarbeit      bedanken.    Besonders
                                                           BMBF is of particular relevance.
hervorheben möchte ich die Kollegen am
„Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna“                    I would like to thank all colleagues for the
(CRSN) in Nouna, Burkina Faso.                             smooth collaboration over the last years. In
                                                           particular to be named are the colleagues at
Mein Dank gilt auch allen Mitarbeiterinnen und             the Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna“
Mitarbeitern des Instituts für Public Health, und          (CRSN) in Nouna, Burkina Faso. My special
ganz besonders allen Mitgliedern meiner                    thanks goes to all members of the Institute of
Sektion    für    die    vertrauensvolle      und          Public Health, in particular all members of the
konstruktive Unterstützung.                                unit, for trustful and constructive support.

                                   Heidelberg, im November 2013

                                   Prof. Dr. Heiko Becher
                                   Leiter der Sektion und stv. Direktor
                                   Head of Unit and Deputy Director
Sektion Epidemiologie und Biostatistik Unit of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Bericht Report 2009-2013 - Institut für Public Health Institute of ...
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Einleitung ● Introduction
Epidemiologie    hat   in   Deutschland    eine      Epidemiology has a relatively short tradition in
vergleichsweise kurze Geschichte. In den             Germany. A few such research departments
achtziger Jahren des letzten Jahrhunderts            existed in the eighties of the last century. This
existierten nur wenige Lehrstühle in diesem          however has clearly changed. By now, there
Fach.    Mittlerweile  gibt   es   an    vielen      are institutes or departments of epidemiology
Universitäten    Deutschlands    eigenständige       in many universities in Germany. In Heidelberg
Institute für Epidemiologie. In Heidelberg           the growth of the field began in 1986 with the
begann der Aufschwung der Epidemiologie im           appointment       of   a    new   professor    in
Deutschen Krebsforschungszentrum mit der             epidemiology to head a new Department of
Neubesetzung der Abteilungsleitung im Jahr           Epidemiology (formerly medical documentation
1986 und Umbenennung der ehemaligen                  and statistics) at the German Cancer Research
Abteilung medizinische Dokumentation und             Center (DKFZ). The establishment of further
Statistik in die Abteilung Epidemiologie.            departments of epidemiology were installed at
Weitere      Gründungen      epidemiologischer       the DKFZ and at the German Center for
Abteilungen im DKFZ und im Deutschen                 Research on Ageing – now merged with the
Zentrum für Alternsforschung – mittlerweile in       DKFZ- which led to a significant development
das DKFZ integriert - brachten einen weiteren        of the field in Heidelberg.
Aufschwung des Faches in Heidelberg mit sich.
                                                     At the medical faculty of the University of
An der Universität Heidelberg wurde eine             Heidelberg there was still no department of
entsprechende Abteilung nicht eingerichtet,          Epidemiology. There were nevertheless some
und es fanden nur einige epidemiologische            epidemiological activities which took place
Aktivitäten innerhalb verschiedener klinischer       within different clinical departments or other
Abteilungen oder in Instituten statt. Eng            institutes. Closely linked to Epidemiology is the
verbunden mit der Epidemiologie ist die              field of Biostatistics. This subject is well
Biostatistik. Die Biostatistik ist in Heidelberg     represented at Heidelberg University by the
seit langer Zeit mit der Abteilung „medizinische     reputable Department of Medical Biometry,
Biometrie“ sehr gut vertreten, allerdings mit        however, it has its focus on clinical trials and
deutlichem Schwerpunkt auf Klinischen Studien        not on methods in epidemiology.
und weniger auf biostatistischer Methoden-
                                                     In 1998 a new position for a professor of
forschung in der Epidemiologie.
                                                     Epidemiology and Biostatistics was created at
Im Jahr 1998 wurde an der medizinischen              the Medical Faculty of the University of
Fakultät der Universität Heidelberg eine C3-         Heidelberg, assigned to the Department of
Professur für Epidemiologie und Biostatistik         Tropical Hygiene and Public Health at the
eingerichtet, die am damals existierenden            Institute of Hygiene with the additional
Hygiene-Institut       in      der      Abteilung    responsibility of being deputy head of this
Tropenhygiene und öffentliches Gesundheits-          relatively large department with about 60
wesen angesiedelt wurde. Die Besetzung dieser        members. A working group Epidemiology and
Professur      war     verbunden      mit      der   Biostatistics was established which became an
stellvertretenden     Abteilungsleitung     dieser   official unit (section) under the statutes of the
relativ    großen   Abteilung     mit    ca.    60   faculty in 2003.
Mitarbeitern.     Der     damit     verbundenen
                                                     Milestones in the development of the unit were
informellen     Gründung      einer   „Unit     of
                                                     two projects within the collaborative research
Epidemiology und Biostatistics“ folgte im Jahr
                                                     grant SFB 544 “Control of Tropical Infectious
2003 die formale Schaffung der Sektion
                                                     Diseases” which ended in 2011, and the PhD
Epidemiologie und Biostatistik.
                                                     Program      (Graduiertenkolleg    793)    for
Meilensteine    in    der     Entstehung      und    epidemiology “Epidemiology of communicable
Entwicklung    der        Sektion    waren     die   and chronic, non-communicable diseases and
Projektleitung von zwei Teilprojekten des SFB        their interrelationships”, which was funded
544     „Kontrolle     tropischer     Infektions-    from 2002 to 2012, and of which the head of
krankheiten“, der mittlerweile beendet ist, und      this unit was the speaker.
die Gründung und Förderung durch die DFG
                                                     There are a number of different areas of
des Graduiertenkollegs 793 „Epidemiologie
                                                     research in the unit. These include studies in
übertragbarer      und     chronischer,     nicht
                                                     infectious disease epidemiology, with focus on
übertragbarer     Erkrankungen      und    deren
                                                     malaria, studies of chronic diseases – among
Wechselbeziehungen“, welches eine Laufzeit
                                                     these studies in cancer epidemiology and
von 2002-2012 hatte, und dessen Sprecher der
                                                     stroke epidemiology – studies in social
Sektionsleiter war.
                                                     epidemiology with focus on migrants from the
Sektion Epidemiologie und Biostatistik Unit of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Bericht Report 2009-2013 - Institut für Public Health Institute of ...
Sektion Epidemiologie und Biostatistik                                                            5
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Die Forschungsthemen innerhalb der Sektion          former Soviet Union, so-called “Aussiedler”,
sind vielfältig. Sie beinhalten infektions-         descriptive studies with focus on data quality
epidemiologische Studien im Bereich Malaria,        for health statistics in Africa, biostatistical
Studien     zur    Epidemiologie      chronischer   research projects and others. An important
Krankheiten – darunter Krebs, Schlaganfall -,       area is also the methodological support of
sozialepidemiologische Studien zu Migranten,        studies performed by other members of the
Studien     im    Bereich     der    deskriptiven   department or of the SFB. This large variety of
Epidemiologie      und      Gesundheitsbericht-     topics is easily    explained. Epidemiological
erstattung in Afrika, biostatistische Forschungs    studies are usually long-term studies, and
projekte und andere. Diese Vielfalt hat             often new projects directly develop from these.
verschiedene      Gründen.      Epidemiologische    For example, the case-control study on
Studien sind in der Regel Langzeitprojekte, bei     laryngeal cancer which started in collaboration
denen sich sinnvolle Folgeprojekte aus der          with the Department of Otolaryngology at
Thematik heraus ergeben. Beispielsweise ist         Heidelberg University Clinics in 1996, is an
die Fall-Kontroll-Studie zum Larynxkarzinom,        ongoing project up to the present day, in which
die bereits 1996 zusammen mit der HNO-              results are still produced and corresponding
Universitätsklinik in Heidelberg begonnen           publications have been emerged and more are
wurde, bis zum heutigen Tag ein aktuelles           expected in the future. The head of the unit
Projekt, bei dem zahlreiche Erkenntnisse und        who moved from the German Cancer Research
entsprechende Publikationen entstanden sind         Center (DKFZ) to the Department of Tropical
und noch entstehen werden. Der Wechsel des          Hygiene and Public Health brought with him
Sektionsleiters     von      dem       Deutschen    the new fields of research which are a focus
Krebsforschungszentrum an das Institut für          today and will remain a focus in the future.
Public Health, brachte die oben genannten
                                                    A new large project which already attracted
neuen Themenfelder mit sich, die heute einen
                                                    much public attention is the so-called “German
breiten Raum einnehmen und auch in der
                                                    National Cohort (NaKo)”. The head of this unit
Zukunft einnehmen werden.
                                                    is the representative of the University of
Einen breiten Raum nimmt seit dem Jahr 2010         Heidelberg in the union (German: Verein)
die sogenannte „Nationale Kohorte (NaKo)“           which has been founded for administrating this
ein, bei der der Leiter der Sektion der Vertreter   study. For this project, which is the largest
des dazu gegründeten Vereins für die                epidemiological study ever performed in
Universität Heidelberg ist. Unter seiner Leitung    Germany, the joint responsibility for the
fanden eine Reihe von Machbarkeitsstudien           recruitment center Mannheim lies with our unit
statt, die zur Vorbereitung der Erhebung der        together with the department of Cancer
Kohorte durchgeführt wurden. Für dieses             Epidemiology at the DKFZ.
bisher größte epidemiologische Projekt in
                                                    In 2012 a call for new epidemiology units and
Deutschland       liegt     die     gemeinsame
                                                    junior working groups was issued by the
Verantwortung für das Rekrutierungszentrum
                                                    German Ministry of Education and Research.
Mannheim bei unserer Sektion gemeinsam mit
                                                    Our unit was successful in an application to
der Abteilung Krebsepidemiologie am DKFZ.
                                                    install a new independent working group within
Eine Ausschreibung des BMBF zur Stärkung der        the unit. The group is headed by Dr. Sabine
Epidemiologie in Deutschland erfolgte im Jahr       Gabrysch. The funding period is for initially six
2012.    Der     Antrag   auf    eine  weitere      years.
eigenständige Arbeitsgruppe war erfolgreich.
                                                    Teaching also plays a major role in the unit.
Sie wird geleitet von Frau Dr. Sabine Gabrysch
                                                    The       epidemiological     part      of     the
und beinhaltet eine Projektförderung für die
                                                    “Querschnittsbereich” Epidemiology, Medical
nächsten sechs Jahre.
                                                    Biometry and Medical Informatics which is
Im Bereich der Lehre ist die Sektion vielfältig     compulsory       according     to    the      new
tätig. Die Organisation der Epidemiologie im        “Approbationsordnung” for medical students is
Querschnittsbereich Epidemiologie, medizi-          organized by the unit head. A number of
nische Biometrie und medizinische Informatik,       members of the unit as well as colleagues from
ein    Pflichtbereich    nach     der     neuen     the DKFZ are involved in teaching. The
Approbationsordnung,         obliegt       dem      epidemiological modules of the master course
Sektionsleiter. Eine Reihe von Mitarbeitern der     “International Health” and other courses within
Sektion, sowie Kollegen aus dem DKFZ, sind          the department are covered by the unit. The
hier    an     der    Lehre    beteiligt.   Die     teaching program for the former PhD program
epidemiologischen Teile der Masterprogramme         has also been organized by our unit. This is
und anderer Kurse an der Abteilung werden           further outlined in the report, as well as further
von der Sektion bestritten. Das Lehrprogramm        scientific activities within and outside the
für das Graduiertenkolleg wurde ebenfalls           medical Faculty of the University of Heidelberg.
organisiert. Dies ist in dem Bericht weiter
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aufgeführt,      sowie      auch      weitere            In terms of publications and grant acquisition
wissenschaftliche Aktivitäten innerhalb und              our unit was quite successful over the last five
außerhalb der Fakultät.                                  years.    The    number      of   peer-reviewed
                                                         publications exceeded 100, many of these in
Die Sektion war in den letzten Jahren in Bezug
                                                         the highest ranked journals of our field. The
auf Publikationen und Drittmitteleinwerbungen
                                                         corresponding list of publications as well as a
recht   erfolgreich,   so    wurden     in   dem
                                                         list of projects funded with soft money are
Berichtszeitraum     insgesamt       über     100
                                                         given at the end of this report.
Zeitschriftenbeiträge veröffentlicht, viele davon
in den besten Zeitschriften unseres Faches.              Most parts of this report are given in German
Das Verzeichnis der Veröffentlichungen und               and English, indicated by the print color. The
eine      entsprechende      Aufstellung      der        description of scientific projects, however, is
geförderten Drittmittelprojekte findet man am            given in English only.
Ende dieses Berichts.
Der Bericht ist größtenteils in Deutsch und
Englisch verfasst. Aus Platzgründen sind die
Beschreibungen       der     wissenschaftlichen
Projekte nur auf Englisch enthalten.

              Abb. 1:   Campus „Im Neuenheimer Feld“ mit Institut für Public Health im
                        Gebäude 324
              Fig. 1:   New University Campus „Im Neuenheimer Feld“ with Institute of Public
                        Health in building 324
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Sektion Epidemiologie und Biostatistik                                                                   7
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1. Forschung ● Research
In diesem Kapitel werden die wesentlichen                   In this chapter the main ongoing research
Forschungsprojekte des Berichtszeitraums kurz               activities of the reporting period are briefly
beschrieben, wobei ebenfalls ein Ausblick auf               described. This includes completed and
laufende und geplante Projekte eingeschlossen               ongoing projects as well as projects in
ist.   Für    jedes     Projekt   bzw.  jeden               preparation. For each project or topic the
Themenbereich sind die beteiligten Mitarbeiter              names of the internal working group and of the
und externen Kooperationspartner genannt.                   external collaborators are given. The project
Der bzw. die Projektleiter ist bzw. sind                    leader(s) is (are) underlined (if applicable).
unterstrichen (falls zutreffend).
                                                            Publications are listed for each project with the
Publikationen aus den jeweiligen Projekten sind             number that refers to the publication list at the
mit der Nummer angegeben, die sich auf die                  end of the report.
Publikationsliste am Ende des Berichts bezieht.

1.1. Gemeinsame Projekte mit dem CRSN, Nouna, Burkina
   Faso und dem INDEPTH Network, Accra, Ghana ●
   Joint Projects with the CRSN, Nouna HDSS, Burkina
   Faso and the INDEPTH network, Accra, Ghana

Mit Anfang des SFB 544, der mittlerweile                    With the special research grant SFB 544, which
ausgelaufen ist, begann eine enge Kooperation               has now ended,           we started a close
mit dem „Centre de Recherche en Santé de                    collaboration with the „Centre de Recherche en
Nouna“ (CRSN) in Nouna, Burkina Faso, auf                   Santé de Nouna“ (CRSN) in Nouna, Burkina
dem Gebiet der Epidemiologie, die auch über                 Faso.     This    collaboration    with   joint
den SFB hinaus in zahlreichen Projekten                     epidemiological projects continued after the
fortgesetzt wird.                                           SFB has ended.
Basis der in diesem Kapitel beschriebenen                   Basis of all studies described in this chapter is
Studien ist jeweils ein so genanntes „Health                a    so-called    „Health   and    Demographic
and     Demographic    Surveillance    System               Surveillance System (HDSS)“, which exists in
(HDSS)“, welches in Nouna seit 1993 existiert,              Nouna since 1993, and in which a population of
und in dem eine Population von gegenwärtig                  currently more than 80000 persons is under
über 80000 Personen unter konstanter                        constant demographic surveillance. This HDSS
demografischer Surveillance ist. Dieses HDSS                and major projects which emerged from this
ist mit den sich daraus ergebenden Projekten                database are described in a review article (Sie
in einem Übersichtsartikel (Sie et al., 2010)               at el., 2010) [26].
[26] beschrieben.

Publication: [26]

                                    Abb. 2:   Dorf im Distrikt Kossi, Burkina Faso
                                    Fig. 2:   Village in district Kossi, Burkina Faso
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Risikofaktoren, zeitliche und räumliche Muster der Sterblichkeit
in Burkina Faso
Risk factors, temporal and spatial patterns of mortality in
Burkina Faso

Project team: Heiko Becher, Anja Schoeps, Gisela Kynast-Wolf, Sabine Gabrysch, Heribert Ramroth,
Gabriele Stieglbauer, Robert Ndugwa
Collaborators within the Institute: Olaf Müller, Valerie Louis, Manuele De Allegri,
External collaborators: Louis Niamba, Ali Sié, Bocar Kouyaté, Corneille Traoré, Maurice Yé, Nouna,
Burkina Faso
Funding: DFG (SFB 544) and GRK 793

                                                      closest health facility was obtained for both the
The database of the HDSS in Nouna, Burkina
                                                      dry and the rainy season, and its effect on
Faso and the collaboration with the scientists
                                                      infant (
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Sektion Epidemiologie und Biostatistik                                                                   9
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significantly related to mortality in old ages.           wave’ effect appears to be observable also in
Cardiovascular mortality varies by season, with           areas with hot average temperatures.
higher mortality rates in the hot dry season.
The pattern seems to be consistent with other
studies suggesting association between hot
weather and cardiovascular disease. A ‘heat-

Publications: [8], [19], [42]

Räumliche Muster der Kindersterblichkeit
Spatial Clustering of childhood mortality

Project team: Heiko Becher, Gisela Kynast-Wolf, Robert Ndugwa, Heribert Ramroth, Gabriele
Stieglbauer
Collaborators within the institute: Olaf Müller
External collaborators: Osman A. Sankoh, INDEPTH Network, Ghana and HDSS sites in twelve
countries in Africa and Asia
Funding: DFG (SFB 544), INDEPTH

In an earlier analysis
of the data from the
DSS       in      Nouna,
Burkina      Faso,       an
extremely             high
childhood      mortality
was     found      in     a
particular        village.
Spatial scan statistics
was the method used
for the analysis. In
an ongoing analysis,
we           investigate
whether                this
clustering       persists
after a new well has
been built to improve
water supply in the
village.     Preliminary
results show that the
childhood      mortality
has               slightly
decreased       in      the  Abb. 3:   Länder mit HDSS verbunden mit dem INDEPTH Netzwerk
years 2000 to 2003,          Fig. 3:   Countries with HDSS linked with the INDEPTH network
however,                the
mortality is still significantly higher than in the          been published in a special issue of the journal
neighboring villages. This result gave rise to               “Global Health Action” together with an
similar analyses in other HDSS sites which are               editorial from H. Becher.
linked together within the INDEPTH Network.
We organized a workshop in Accra, Ghana to
investigate such patterns. The results have

Publication: [16]
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Ermittlung der Todesursache mit Daten der “Verbalen
Autopsie”: das probabilistische InterVA
Ascertaining the Cause of Death using Verbal Autopsy Data:
The probabilistic InterVA.
Project team: Heribert Ramroth, Johanna Rankin, Eva Lorenz, Mark Ssennono, Heiko Becher
External collaborators: Ali Sié, CRSN Nouna, Burkina Faso, Peter Byass, Umea Universitet, Sweden
and others
Funding: DFG (SFB 544), Project D1
Funding period: 2008-2012
In many developing countries most deaths            Difficulties in determining malaria as cause of
occur outside hospitals. Therefore verbal           death in holoendemic malaria regions might
autopsy (VA), involving following up deaths         result in higher discrepancies than those in
with those present at the time, has been            non-endemic areas. As neither Physician Coded
shown to be a useful and often the only             Verbal Autopsy nor Interpreting Verbal Autopsy
possible method for deriving cause of death         results represent a gold standard, uncertainty
statistics in such settings. The most common        levels with either procedure are high.
method for determining the probable cause of        A subsequent project covered special aspects
death (COD) from the VA interview is Physician      of the verbal autopsy (VA) questionnaires. The
Coded Verbal Autopsy (PCVA), an independent         question is: How informative is so called “free
review of questionnaire data by physician(s)        text” in the VA questionnaires? The free text
trained in VA coding.                               part serves to describe the background
An alternative method, the Interpret Verbal         situation of the time before death like general
Autopsy (InterVA) model, is based on a              health of the deceased, health seeking
Bayesian approach which derives posterior           behavior    and    other    information   found
probabilities for causes of death given an a        important to report by the relatives of the
priori distribution at population level and a set   deceased. Additionally, this part is not in
of interview-based indicators. The InterVA          general coded by the fieldworker doing the
model has begun to be used in developing            interview in the standardized section of the
countries, most notably in the INDEPTH              interview. The aim of this project was to
network.                                            determine the impact of free text information
                                                    seeking the final cause of death. We found that
The aim of the project was to compare the           there were changes of between 5.5-10.2%
COD distribution using the PCVA approach            between models before and after free-text
versus     the  InterVA   model,   based    on      incorporation. No impact on malaria CSMFs
information from a French VA questionnaire in       was seen in the representative sub-sample,
rural north-western Burkina Faso. We found          but the proportion of malaria as cause of death
that at the population level, 62.5% of causes       increased in the physician sub-sample (2.7%)
of death using the Interpreting Verbal Autopsy      and saw a large decrease in the InterVA
model corresponded with those determined by         subsample (9.9%). Information on 13/106
two or three physicians. Although seven of the      indicators appeared at least once in the free-
10 main causes of death were present in both        texts that had not been matched to any item in
approaches, the comparison of percentages of        the structured, electronically available portion
single causes of death shows discrepancies,         of the Nouna questionnaire. We concluded that
dominated by higher malaria rates found in the      free-texts are helpful in gathering information
Physician Coded Verbal Autopsy approach.            not adequately captured in VA questionnaires,
Our results confirm that national mortality         though access to free-text does not explain
statistics, which are partly based on verbal        differences    in    physician    and     model
autopsies, must be carefully interpreted.           determination of malaria as cause of death.

Publications: [65, 66]
Sektion Epidemiologie und Biostatistik                                                           11
___________________________________________________________________________________________

Mangelernährung bei Kindern
Childhood malnutrition

Unit member in project team: Sabine Gabrysch
Project team at Institute of Public Health: Olaf Müller, Claudia Beiersmann, Valerie Louis,
Albrecht Jahn
External collaborators: Maurice Yé, Nouna, Burkina Faso
Funding: DFG (GRK 793)
For measurement of progress towards the              (42.6%) and lowest in December 2009
Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 1,                 (34.1%). After adjustment for age, sex and
reliable data on nutrition indicators of specific    village, there was a slight but not always
countries are essential. Malnutrition is also the    significant improvement in the z-scores of
main determinant for childhood mortality,            weight-for-age, weight-for-length, length-for-
which is addressed in MDG 4. In the Nouna            age, and mid-arm circumference over time.
HDSS, nutritional parameters were compared           The findings from this study confirm the still
in two cohorts of young children of the same         unacceptable high prevalence of malnutrition in
age range from eight villages. Surveys took          young children of rural sub-Saharan Africa
place in June and December of the year 1999          (SSA). We concluded that progress in the
and 2009. A multivariate model was used to           reduction of malnutrition remains slow on this
control for confounding variables. Prevalence        continent making it rather unlikely that the
of underweight was highest in December 1999          corresponding MDGs will be achieved.

Publication: [48]

Effekt von imprägnierten Bettnetzen im Säuglingsalter
Effects of insecticide-treated bednets during early infancy

Unit members in project team: Heiko Becher, Heribert Ramroth, Gabriele Stieglbauer
Project team at Institute of Public Health: Olaf Müller
External Collaborators: Corneille Traoré, Bocar Kouyaté, Yazoumé Yé, Claudia Frey, Boubacar
Coulibaly
Funding: DFG, SFB 544
This study was performed under the                   representative   subsample     of    the   study
supervision of Prof. Dr. Olaf Müller and             population.
analyzed in this unit. Insecticide-impregnated       After a mean follow-up of 27 months, there
bednets and curtains have been shown by              were 129 deaths in group A and 128 deaths in
many studies to be effective against malaria.        group B rate ratio (RR) 1.0 (95% confidence
However, because of possible interactions with       interval (CI): 0.78-1.27)). Falciparum malaria
immunity development, treated bednets may            incidence was lower in group A than in group
cause no effect at all or even an increase in        B, during early (0-5 months) and late infancy
malaria morbidity and mortality in areas of          (6-12 months) (RR 3.1, 95% CI: 2.0-4.9; RR
high transmission. To clarify this issue, we did     1.3, 95% CI: 1.1-1.6) and rates of moderate
a randomized controlled trial to assess the          to severe anaemia were significantly lower
long-term effects of bednet protection during        during late infancy (11.5% vs 23.3%, P =
early infancy.                                       0.008), but there were no differences between
Between 2000 and 2002 a total of 3387                groups in these parameters in children older
neonates from 41 villages in rural Burkina Faso      than 12 months. The findings from this study
were individually randomized to receive either       provide additional evidence for the efficacy of
bednet protection from birth (group A) or from       insecticide-treated nets in young children living
age 6 months (group B). Primary outcomes             in areas of intense malaria transmission.
were all-cause mortality in all study children
                                                     In the reporting period, a further analysis with
and incidence of falciparum malaria in a
                                                     a long-term follow-up has been performed.
                                                     After a median follow-up time of 8.3 years,
12                                                                                   Bericht 2009-2013
___________________________________________________________________________________________
443/3387 (13.1%) children had migrated out              We conclude that insecticide-treated mosquito
of the area and 484/2944 (16.4%) had died,              net protection in early infancy is not a risk
mostly at home. Long-term compliance with               factor for mortality. Individual ITN protection
ITN protection was good. There were no                  does not sufficiently reduce malaria prevalence
differences in mortality between study groups           in high-transmission areas. Achieving universal
(248 deaths in group A, 236 deaths in group             ITN coverage remains a major challenge for
B; rate ratio 1.05, 95% CI: 0.889-1.237, P =            malaria prevention in Africa.
0.574). The survey conducted briefly after the
rainy season in 2009 showed that more than
80% of study children carried asexual malaria
parasites and up to 20% had clinical malaria.

Publication: [60]

Optimising the impact and cost-effectiveness of child health
intervention (OPTIMUNIZE)

Unit members in Project team: Heiko Becher, Anja Schoeps
Project team members within the institute: Olaf Müller, Nobila Ouédraogo
External Collaborators: Peter Aaby, Christine Benn, Ane Fisker, Statens Serum Institut Denmark;
Instituto Nacional de Salude Publica, Guinea-Bissau; Ali Sié et al., Centre de Recherche en Santé de
Nouna, Burkina Faso; Ghana Health Service, Ghana; INDEPTH Network, Ghana and others
Funding: EU
Recent studies have consistently shown that             information from existing vaccination cards
vaccines and micronutrients have non-specific           ranged from 80% (measles) to 94% (OPV1).
effects, i.e. effects which are not explained by        When taking into consideration all information
prevention of the targeted infections or                available (including BCG scars in children with
deficiencies. These effects are often sex-              and without vaccination card), full coverage in
differential. Furthermore, interventions may            children aged 12–23 months was around 75%,
interact. Hence, the overall impact of child            with a significantly higher coverage in rural
health programs cannot be extrapolated from             compared with urban areas. There were no
small-scale target-specific studies.                    differences in vaccination coverage between
                                                        boys and girls. The study supports other
In this study we first used the health and
                                                        studies that found vaccination coverage
demographic surveillance system (HDSS) sites
                                                        improvement in Burkina Faso recently.
in Nouna, Burkina Faso to register information
routinely on all inter-
                                                                              In a second step we
ventions in childhood,
                                                                              perform a two center
such as all vaccinations,
                                                                              randomised intervention
micro-nutrient
                                                                              trial in Burkina Faso and
supplementation,     and
                                                                              in Guinea-Bissau.
de-worming, given at
health centres or in
                                                                              Providing early measles
campaigns.            We
                                                                              vaccine at 4.5 and 9
estimated    vaccination
                                                                              months     of     age   is
coverage using a data
                                                                              currently being compared
set of 11 906 children
                                                                              with the recommended
aged
Sektion Epidemiologie und Biostatistik                                                               13
___________________________________________________________________________________________

INDEPTH Training and Research Centres of Excellence
(INTREC)

Unit members in project team: Heiko Becher, Nicholas Henschke, Heribert Ramroth
External Project team members: Osman Sankoh et al., INDEPTH Network, Ghana; Peter Byass,
John Kinsmann et al., Umea, Sweden; Joke Haafkens, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Lisa Berkmann,
Anna Mirny, Harvard University, USA, Laksono Trisnantoro, Indonesia, Karen Hofmann, South Africa
Funding: EU
The      WHO's        Commission    on   Social          presented to decision makers in an actionable,
Determinants of Health (SDH) argued in 2008              policy-relevant manner.
that the dramatic differences in health status           INTREC activities will cover three African
that exist between and within countries are              (Ghana, South Africa, Tanzania) and four Asian
intimately linked with degrees of social                 countries (Indonesia, Viet Nam, Bangladesh,
disadvantage. These differences are unjust and           India) and will be concentrated in two training
avoidable, and it is the                                                    centres    in    Ghana    and
responsibility of govern-                                                   Indonesia. The centers are
ments, researchers, and                                                     to become focal points for
civil society to work to                                                    research        on      social
reduce them. Part of this                                                   determinants of health in
work        requires         the                                            LMICs,      thus     enabling
production       of     setting-                                            extensive South-South and
specific,      timely,      and                                             North-South networks and
relevant evidence on the                                                    research cooperation.
relationship between social                                                 INTREC        approach      to
determinants of health and                                                  capacity-building is holistic
health outcomes, and yet                                                    and includes both, providing
this information is limited,                                                state-of-the-art      region-
especially    in    low-    and                                             specific training for young
middle-income          countries Abb. 5: Beteiligte Länder bei INTREC       researchers, and educating
(LMICs). Thus there is a         Fig. 5: Countries covered by INTREC        decision-makers on social
strong     need       for    the                                            determinants of health. The
development of capacity-                                                    work will be carried by a
building activities to enable such research.             strong Consortium team of five university-
                                                         based    centres  in    Sweden,   Germany,
INTREC has been established with this concern            Netherlands, Indonesia and USA and by one
in mind and its dual aims include:                       research network of demographic surveillance
•        Providing SDH-related training for              sites in LMICs with headquarters in Ghana
The International Network for the Demographic            (INDEPTH).
Evaluation of Populations and Their Health
researchers (INDEPTH), thereby allowing the              INTREC approach will be evaluated at the end
production of evidence on associations                   of a 3.5-year period. Based on the results of
between SDH and health outcomes.                         this evaluation, a conceptual framework on
•        Enabling the sharing of this                    how to build sustainable capacity for research
information through facilitating links between           on health and its social determinants that
researchers   and  decision     makers,    and           could be applied in other LMICs will be
byensuring   that  research     findings   are           developed.

Publications: [77]
14                                                                              Bericht 2009-2013
___________________________________________________________________________________________

Weitere Studien zu Malaria in Nouna, Burkina Faso
Further Studies on Malaria in Nouna, Burkina Faso

Project team members in Unit: Heiko Becher, Gisela Kynast-Wolf, Gabriele Stieglbauer
Project team members within the institute and the medical faculty: Olaf Müller, Michael
Lanzer, Thomas Jänisch, Caroline Geiger, and others
External project team members: Ali Sié, Boubacar Coulibaly, CRSN, Nouna, Burkina Faso and
others
Funding: DFG (GRK 793 and SFB 544)
One study (Geiger et al., 2013) within the PhD      treated mosquito net (ITN) trial during which
program 793 aimed at assessing the dynamics         neonates were individually randomized to ITN
of parasite prevalence and malaria species          protection from birth vs. protection from
distribution over time in an area of highly         month six onwards in rural Burkina Faso. A sub
seasonal transmission in Burkina Faso and to        sample of 120 children from three villages was
compare      frequency     of     asymptomatic      followed for 10 months with six measurements
parasitaemia between wet and dry season by          of MSP142 antibodies (ELISA based on
parasite density status and age group. Cross-       recombinant 42 kDa fragment) and daily
sectional studies were performed in the rural       assessment of malaria episodes. Time to the
village Bourasso in the Nouna Health District in    next malaria episode was determined in
north-west Burkina Faso. In subsequent rainy        relation to MSP142 antibody titres. MSP142
and dry seasons blood samples were collected        antibody titres were dependent on age,
to assess the parasite prevalence, species,         season, ITN-group, number of previous malaria
density and clinical parameters. In total, 1,767    episodes and parasitaemia. There were no
children and adults were examined and               significant differences in time until the next
compared to a baseline collected in 2000. The       malaria episode in children with low compared
microscopical parasite prevalence (mainly P.        to children with high MSP142 antibody titres at
falciparum) measured over the rainy seasons         any point in time (101 vs. 97 days in May, p =
decreased significantly from 78.9% (2000) to        0.6; 58 vs. 84 days in September, p = 0.3;
58.4%, 55.9% and 49.3%, respectively                144 vs. 161 days in March, p = 0.5). The
(2009–2011; p
Sektion Epidemiologie und Biostatistik                                                          15
___________________________________________________________________________________________
parasites. Our data suggest a selective              model that the human host provides various
disadvantage of the polymorphic and a                microenvironments that favor genetically
selective advantage of the wild-type pfcrt           distinct P. falciparum populations.
haplotype in the placenta, supporting the

Publications: [21], [58]

1.2. Weitere infektionsepidemiologische Studien ●
     Further studies in infectious disease epidemiology

Infektionskrankheiten waren das erste Feld der      Epidemiology developed from research on
Epidemiologie. Ein klassisches Beispiel hierfür     infectious diseases. As a classical example the
ist die Arbeit von John Snow, der Mitte des 19.     work of John Snow is often cited who
Jahrhunderts die Übertragungsweise von              discovered the mode of transmission of cholera
Cholera entdeckte und effektive Interventionen      in the 19th century and developed an effective
vor der Entdeckung des Vibrio cholerae              intervention before the agent Vibrio cholerae
entwickelte.                                        was discovered.
Auch heute ist die Infektionsepidemiologie ein      Infectious disease epidemiology is still an
wichtiger      Bereich,    insbesondere     im      important field, in particular in collaborative
Zusammenhang          mit     Forschung      in     research in low- and middle-income countries.
Entwicklungsländern. In dieser Sektion wurden       In this Unit a number of studies in the field of
in Berichtszeitraum eine Reihe von Studien zu       infectious diseases have been performed. If
Infektionskrankheiten durchgeführt. Soweit es       these have been joint projects with the CRSN
sich um Projekte gemeinsam mit dem CRSN in          in Nouna, Burkina Faso or with the INDEPTH
Nouna, Burkina Faso, oder mit dem INDEPTH           network, they have already been described in
Network handelt, sind diese bereits im vorigen      the previous chapter.
Kapitel beschrieben.

Vergleich von Medikamenten gegen Kopfläuse
Comparison of head lice treatment

Project team: Heiko Becher, Susanne Sonnberg
External Collaborators: Jörg Heukelbach, Fortalezza, Brasil and collaborators
Funding: DFG (GRK 793) and Bonusmittel
This was a joint project with colleagues in          and fed on volunteers to obtain fertile eggs of
Fortalezza, Brasil. Head lice are common             known age. Two methods of feeding were
worldwide, and effective treatment is needed.        applied: interval feeding (performed every 8-
In this study ovicidal efficacy of three             12 hours), and
dimeticone products of different compositions        continuous
                     were tested.       Against      feeding.    The
                     mature     eggs,     NYDA       following out-
                     outperformed all other          come
                     products           (94.9%       measures
                     efficacy),     with      a      were      used:
                     significant difference to       appearance of
                     Jacutin     (73.7%;      P      eye spot;          Fig 6a: Pediculus humanus
                     ¼.016) and the other            presence     of    capitis
                     pediculicides.                  embryonic
                                                     structures; presence of embryonic movements;
  Fig. 6:Petrophaga  Within the project, an
                                                     and hatching. Results: Eye spots of the
  lorioti            adaptation of historical
                                                     embryos started to appear 6 days after
                     methods for rearing head
                                                     oviposition (median = 7 days), and embryonic
lice was done, and their development ex vivo
                                                     movements were first seen 9 days after
was described. Adult head lice were collected
16                                                                              Bericht 2009-2013
___________________________________________________________________________________________
oviposition (median 11 days). Continuous           habitat, and hatch rates are high. However,
feeding of head lice on a human host is a          side effects on volunteers such as skin
suitable approach to obtain head lice eggs for     irritation (papular rash; moderate to severe
ovicidal testing. The method is simple and         itching) occur and must be considered.
cheap, offers conditions similar to the natural

Publications: [27], [36]

Tuberkulose in Deutschland
Tuberculosis in Germany

Project team: Heiko Becher, Judith Barniol
Collaborations within the institute and the medical faculty: Thomas Junghanss
External Collaborators: Walter Haas, Berlin; Michael Forßbohm, Wiesbaden and others
Funding: DFG (GRK 793), DFG (Einzelantrag) and Bonusmittel
In one of our studies (Forsbohm et al, 2011)       out in a German federal state from 2003 to
on Tuberculosis in Germany, we investigated        2005. Data for the study included: 1) case
the validity of the statistics on deaths caused    data routinely collected by the local public
by TB. The study population consists of the        health staff and transmitted to the state health
926 fatal cases that were classified either as     office and the national surveillance centre, 2) a
“death from TB” or as “death due to other          study questionnaire designed to capture social
causes”. For the analysis, health authorities      interactions of relevance for TB transmission
were asked to provide additional information       and 3) molecular genotyping data. Results: A
and such documents as the death certificate,       total of 749 cases of culture-positive
the autopsy protocol and the final medical         pulmonary tuberculosis voluntarily enrolled in
report. Based on the findings, every second        the study. Forty-seven clusters, defined as at
death caused by TB in 1997 and 1998 was not        least two cases infected by the same TB
recorded correctly during the postmortem           strains, were identified by molecular methods
examination. Every third TB death was not          and included 132 (17%) of the study
diagnosed during the patient’s lifetime.           participants.   Epidemiological     links    were
Patients who died due to TB were, on average,      identified for 28% of the clusters by
older and more likely to be born in Germany.       conventional epidemiological data. In mixed
                                                   clusters, defined as clusters including German
This indicates that age-related comorbidity
                                                   and foreign-born individuals, the probability of
among the native German population plays a
                                                   cases to be caused by foreign-born cases was
relevant role. Yet, the unicausal death
                                                   estimated at 18.3%. We observed a trend to
registration did not acknowledge comorbidity
                                                   mixed clusters with increasing time spent by
as a contributing factor to the fatal outcome.
                                                   immigrants in the host country. This group also
In conclusion, the post-mortem examination
                                                   presented comparatively higher integration
often missed TB as the cause of death. Many
                                                   indexes than immigrants in immigrant-only
native German TB patients showed age-related
                                                   clusters.
comorbidity. Pulmonary TB with positive
                                                   The study confirmed the findings of other
microscopy, miliary TB and meningeal TB led
                                                   studies that there is no significant TB
more often to a fatal outcome than other organ
                                                   transmission     from     TB     high-prevalence
manifestations. Alcohol abuse was a leading
                                                   immigrant to TB low-prevalence autochthonous
risk factor for TB deaths in patients younger
                                                   population. This may be explained by the good
than 65 years.
                                                   performance      of    tuberculosis     screening
                                                   programs for certain groups arriving in
In another study (Barniol et al., 2009) we
                                                   Germany from high- prevalence countries, by a
described how immigration influences TB
                                                   low degree of mixing of immigrants with the
transmission in Germany. A prospective study
                                                   local population or by a combination of both.
of confirmed culture positive cases of
pulmonary TB and their contacts was carried

Publications: [13], [32]
Sektion Epidemiologie und Biostatistik                                                              17
___________________________________________________________________________________________

Die Bedeutung antimikrobieller Peptide bei Hautinfektionen
The role of antimicrobial peptides in human skin infections

Unit member in project team: Sabine Gabrysch
External collaborator: Philipp Zanger, Tübingen
Funding: Core funding

Staphylococcus aureus is the most common              peptide RNase 7 was 64% higher in the skin of
cause of skin infections. Presentation and            control subjects than in the skin of cases, while
course of disease vary from minor self-limiting       there was no difference in the expression of
infections to deep, recurrent abscesses that          the antimicrobial peptides HBD-2 and HBD-3.
require surgical intervention and systemic            Together with the known high baseline
antibiotic therapy. A possible explanation for        expression of RNase 7, this suggests that this
these differences in disease susceptibility and       AMP confers protection against skin infection.
severity has been provided by recent insights         In those travellers with skin infection, we
into innate defence mechanisms of human               furthermore      examined      AMP     inducibility
skin, in particular antimicrobial peptides (AMP).     (upregulation) by comparing AMP levels in
These are natural antibiotics present in the          infected skin to that in healthy skin. Both HBD-
skin that are thought to prevent infection in         2 and HBD-3 were strongly upregulated by S.
the first place, or that can be upregulated in        aureus infection, but not RNase 7. When
response to infection and limit the severity of       comparing inducibility between patients with
disease.                                              different severity of skin infection, we found
In the travel clinic of the Institute of Tropical     that expression of HBD-3 was 11 times lower
Medicine in Tübingen, studies were conducted          in patients with more than 6 recurrences and 9
among travellers returning with Staphylo-             times lower in patients reporting surgical
coccus aureus-positive skin infection (cases)         drainage than in the respective baseline
and healthy control subjects.                         groups. There was no difference in HBD-2
                                                      inducibility between severity groups. This
When examining healthy skin (from the gluteal
                                                      suggests that high inducibility of HBD-3 can
region) from both cases and controls, we could
                                                      limit the severity of skin infection.
show that expression of the antimicrobial

Publications: [30], [70]

Chronic kidney disease among HIV+ patients in Zambia

Unit member in project team: Andreas Deckert
Project team at Institute of Public Health: Florian Neuhann, Claudia Beiersmann
External collaborators: Helmut Reutter, CHRESO Ministries Zambia, Martin Zeier, Kidney Center
Heidelberg; Thomas Bruckner, Institut für Medizinische Biometrie, Heidelberg; Dietrich Rothenbacher,
Institut für Epidemiologie und Medizinische Biometrie Ulm
Funding: Else Kröner-Fresenius-Stiftung (proposal submitted)
This project plans to address the lack of             long run end up in severe CKD, whose
knowledge regarding diagnosis/categorization          treatment needs additional medical devices,
of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in HIV+               which are hardly available in SSA. Furthermore
patients in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and             chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major cause
regarding prevalence and incidence of CKD,            of morbidity and mortality particularly in low-
what will make the need of action visible to          income countries. The degree and burden of
health policy. HIV prevalence in Zambia, SSA,         HIV+ related nephropathy in Zambia is widely
is known to be high at about 14%. It                  unknown, single studies report about up to
constitutes a top public health problem and is        34% CKD prevalence among HIV-patients in
known to be jointly responsible for hampering         Zambia. Measurement and definition of renal
development of the society. Among others, HIV         function is challenging and can be estimated
infection can cause nephropathy and in the            indirectly only in SSA by assessing the
18                                                                                   Bericht 2009-2013
___________________________________________________________________________________________
glomerular filtration rate (GFR), based on              should be used to estimate the CKD prevalence
serum creatinine. In the region of Lusaka,              among HIV+ patients, to identify CKD
Zambia,     a   humanitarian      project    was        favouring anti-retroviral treatment, and to
established to provide anti-retroviral treatment        establish a CKD preventive HIV treatment
to HIV+ patients. Within this project, routine          scheme in the long run. In the prospective part
laboratory time-series data of some thousand            we plan to establish a HIV- control group and
patients exist, starting in 2005. This data             to include additional CKD risk factors.

1.3. Krebsepidemiologie ● Cancer epidemiology
Krebsepidemiologie hat sich seit dem Nachweis           Cancer epidemiology developed very rapidly
des Zusammenhangs zwischen Rauchen und                  since the 1950s when the link between
Lungenkrebs in den fünfziger Jahren des                 smoking and lung cancer was discovered.
20. Jahrhunderts rasant entwickelt. Studien             Studies were mainly performed in western
fanden in der überwiegenden Mehrzahl in                 countries, where cancer is one of the major
Industrieländern statt, in denen Krebs eine der         causes of death. Studies in developing
Haupttodesursachen ist. In letzter Zeit werden          countries, however, are becoming more and
auch     zunehmend        krebsepidemiologische         more common, mainly because of the overall
Studien in Entwicklungsländern durchgeführt,            increasing life expectancy and a related
bedingt durch eine insgesamt steigende                  increasing cancer incidence. In this Unit we
Lebenserwartung und einer damit verbundenen             perform a number of cancer studies, which in
ansteigenden Krebsinzidenz. In dieser Sektion           part originated as long term projects from the
werden bzw. wurden eine Reihe von Studien               former position of the unit head at the German
aus dem Bereich der Krebsepidemiologie                  Cancer Research Center.
durchgeführt.

Rauchen und Lungenkrebs in Afrika
Smoking and lung cancer in Africa

Project team: Volker Winkler, Heiko Becher
External collaborators: Jördis Jennifer Ott, Melanie Cowan, WHO, Geneva;
Funding: GKR 793, SFB 544 and core funding
In general data on smoking prevalence is                year. Tobacco is the major cause of cancer and
scarce for African countries, but                       an important risk factor for several other
there are several studies for                                            chronic diseases. Due to the
different countries available that                                       epidemiological transition in
show an alarming trend: Male                                             developing           countries
smoking prevalence in African                                            (increasing life expectancy)
varies from about 20% up to                                              there    is   an    increasing
over 65% depending on age and                                            relevance of chronic diseases
country.                                                                 to the total burden of
                                                                         diseases.
Traditionally, smokers are mostly
males. The proportion of women                                            We developed a method to
smokers is very low, but is                                               estimate the number of lung
already rising in a few African                                           cancer cases caused         by
countries. According to the WHO,                                          smoking in Africa using lung
in 1999, Africa smoked 4% of                                              cancer mortality data from
World cigarette consumption and      Abb. 7:Lungenkrebsraten (Männer)     industrialized countries only
the UN's Food and Agricultural       in Afrika                            in combination with smoking
Organisation      (FAO)     state    Fig. 7: lung cancer mortality rate   prevalence data in Africa. The
cigarette smoking in Africa is       (males) in Africa                    results showed, that the
growing by a record 3.5% a           (Becher & Winkler, 2010)             previous estimates were too
Sektion Epidemiologie und Biostatistik                                                                19
___________________________________________________________________________________________
high but on the other hand up to 50000 lung              We were able to show that the estimates by
cancer deaths per year occur in Africa, most of          IARC/WHO, which are based extrapolations
them caused by smoking. This number will                 from local cancer registries in a few African
increase due to the demographic transistion.             countries are not reliable and strongly
                                                         underestimate the real burden of the disease.
We applied the model to data from countries
                                                         Even under the assumption of decrease in
where data on lung cancer mortality are
                                                         smoking prevalence, we showed lung cancer
sufficiently reliable, and found that our model
                                                         mortality will rise. The epidemiologic transition
predicts total burden of lung cancer very well.
                                                         in African low-income countries alludes to the
                                                         need for targeted health prevention efforts.

Publications: [28], [29], [31], [44], [82]

Studien zur Äthiologie und Prognose des Kehlkopfkrebs
Studies on etiology and prognosis of laryngeal cancer
Project team: Heribert Ramroth, Irene Santi, Heiko Becher
External collaborators: Odilia Popanda, Angela Risch, Peter Schmezer, DKFZ Heidelberg Andreas
Dietz, Leipzig; Wolfgang Ahrens, BIPS Bremen; and others
Funding: Dietmar Hopp foundation

The    Rhein-Neckar-Larynx       Study     is    a     exposures might explain a part of the
population-based     case-control    study    1:3      remaining but the components and pathways
frequency matched by age and sex on                    of the socioeconomic contribution have yet to
laryngeal cancer in South-West Germany with            be fully disentangled. One aim of this analysis
257 cases, histologically confirmed and                is to evaluate the role of occupation using
diagnosed between 1.5.1998 and                                              different       occupational
31.12.2000 and 769 population                                               indices,      differentiating
controls.     Information      about                Darmstadt               between              physical,
occupational exposures, lifestyle                                           psycho-social and toxic
factors and socio demographic                                               exposures and trying to
background were obtained with                                               summarize                 the
face-to-face interviews using a                                             occupational burden into
detailed                standardized             Mannheim                   one variable.
questionnaire. This case-control                                            A     second      of    these
study allowed numerous analyses          Ludwigshf.
                                                    Heidelberg
                                                                            analyses   is   to   measure
and publication, some of which                                              the extent to which the
published in this reporting period.                                         association          between
                                                               Heilbronn    socioeconomic status and
Based on the data from the case
                                                                            laryngeal      cancer       is
control study, new analyses have
                                                                            mediated by smoking,
been done to better understand       Abb. 8:   Studienregion der Rhein-     alcohol consumption and
the influence of occupation as risk  Neckar-Larynx Studie                   occupational       exposure.
factor    for  laryngeal     cancer. Fig.8:     Study region of the Rhein-
                                                                            For this, a decomposition
Previous studies tried to assess the Neckar-Larynx Studie
                                                                            method for logit models
association between socioeconomic
                                                       proposed by Karlson, Holm and Breen was
status and laryngeal cancer. Alcohol and
                                                       used to return the percentage of change in
tobacco consumption explain already a large
                                                       odds ratios due to confounding.
part of the social inequalities. Occupational

Publications: [107], [108]

The    cases   of   the   study    have  been            laryngeal cancer patients, involving a variety of
supplemented by more than 500 further cases              interacting factors. Five-year overall survival of
from the years 2001 to 2004 to generate a                all Europeans diagnosed with laryngeal cancer
patient cohort which has been followed up until          between 1995 and 1999 was 55%, slightly
June 2011. This was done to better analyse               worse than survival rates for the German
those factors which influence survival of                population (59%). Despite the knowledge that
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