LEADING INDICATORS FOR THE REAL ESTATE MARKET - REAL ESTATE MARKETS, CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY, MACROECONOMY, COMMODITY PRICES - Empira
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LEADING INDICATORS FOR THE REAL ESTATE MARKET
REAL ESTATE MARKETS, CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY,
MACROECONOMY, COMMODITY PRICES
RESEARCH REPORT
SEPTEMBER 2020
REAL EXPERTS.
REAL EXPERTS.
REAL VALUES.
REAL VALUES.
Erklärung
Erklärung und
und Prognose
Prognose von
von Wohnungsmieten
Wohnungsmieten ––
Bestimmung
Bestimmung wesentlicher
wesentlicher Einflussfaktoren
Einflussfaktoren
mittels
LeadingKorrelationsanalyse
mittels indicators for the
Korrelationsanalyse
real estate economy
In Zeiten hoher Marktdynamik und steigender Wettbewerbsintensität
In
sindZeiten hoher Marktdynamik
leistungsfähige Systeme derund Analyse
steigender undWettbewerbsintensität
Entscheidungsunter-
Real estate markets, construction activity,
sind
stützung unverzichtbar. Das Immobilien- undund
leistungsfähige Systeme der Analyse Entscheidungsunter-
Markt-Research arbeitet
stützung
dabei insbesondere an den Themen Informationserhebung,arbeitet
unverzichtbar. Das Immobilien- und Markt-Research
macroeconomy, commodity prices
dabei insbesondere
zahlenbewertung undan den Themen Informationserhebung,
Potenzialeinschätzung.
Kenn-
Entscheidend ist Kenn-
dabei
zahlenbewertung
die Kenntnis von und Potenzialeinschätzung.
Einflussfaktoren, in Bezug auf Entscheidend ist dabei
auf immobilienwirt-
die KenntnisZielgrößen.
schaftliche von Einflussfaktoren, in Bezug
Die vorliegende aufzeigt
Studie auf immobilienwirt-
Methoden und
Real estate markets
schaftliche are similar
Zielgrößen. Die to other markets
vorliegende Studie and the
zeigt economyund
Methoden in
Ergebnisse einer solchen Parameteranalyse, bezogen auf die Zielgröße
general
Ergebnissein that they
einer undergo
solchen cycles. These cycles
Parameteranalyse, are irregular
bezogen auf die in terms
Zielgröße
Marktmiete. Die Datengrundlage berücksichtigt die Wohnungsmärkte
of their lengthDie
Marktmiete. and amplitude, however. It is always a challenge for insti-
Deutschlands in Datengrundlage
Städten ab 70.000 berücksichtigt
Einwohnern.die Wohnungsmärkte
tutional investors
Deutschlands to align ab
in Städten their real estate
70.000 investments to new market
Einwohnern.
developments. The search for, negotiation, approval and execution of
transactions lead to considerable delays along the time line. The mar-
ket data received on a particular day is based on decisions which have
generally been taken months beforehand – and in the case of some
construction projects many years ago. With this information basis market
trends are often identified too late to bring about effective and efficient
reactions. As real estate markets do not exist in splendid isolation from
the general economic environment, leading indicators elsewhere in the
economy can possibly be useful, however. This study is dedicated to the
search for corresponding parameters which correlate with the real estate
market and precede it where possible, therefore. Thus a number of lea-
ding indicators with striking correlations can be identified, which when
taken alone do not allow for reliable conclusions to be drawn, but taken
as a whole could serve as early indicators for possible developments on
the real estate markets.
2
2
2
REAL EXPERTS.
REAL EXPERTS.
REAL VALUES.
REAL VALUES.
Erklärung
Erklärung und
und Prognose
Prognose von
von Wohnungsmieten
Wohnungsmieten ––
Bestimmung
Bestimmung wesentlicher
wesentlicher Einflussfaktoren
Einflussfaktoren
mittels
mittels Korrelationsanalyse
Korrelationsanalyse
Inhalt In Zeiten hoher Marktdynamik und steigender Wettbewerbsintensität
In Zeiten hoher Marktdynamik und Analyse
steigender
sind leistungsfähige Systeme der undWettbewerbsintensität
Entscheidungsunter-
sind
stützung unverzichtbar. Das Immobilien- undund
leistungsfähige Systeme der Analyse Entscheidungsunter-
Markt-Research arbeitet
stützung
dabei insbesondere an den Themen Informationserhebung,arbeitet
unverzichtbar. Das Immobilien- und Markt-Research Kenn-
01 | Use of leading indicators
dabei for decisions
insbesondere
zahlenbewertung undonan investment
den Themen and disinvestment.......................4
Potenzialeinschätzung. Informationserhebung,
Entscheidend ist Kenn- dabei
zahlenbewertung
die Kenntnis von und Potenzialeinschätzung.
Einflussfaktoren, in Bezug auf Entscheidend ist dabei
auf immobilienwirt-
Timing of portfolio
die restructuring......................................................................................
KenntnisZielgrößen.
schaftliche von Einflussfaktoren,
Die vorliegende in Bezug Studie aufzeigt
auf immobilienwirt-
Methoden und 4
schaftliche Zielgrößen. Die vorliegende Studie zeigt Methoden und
Leading indicatorsErgebnisse
in market einer
forecast. ..............................................................................4
solchen Parameteranalyse, bezogen auf die Zielgröße
Ergebnisse
Marktmiete.einer solchen Parameteranalyse,
Die Datengrundlage berücksichtigt bezogen auf die Zielgröße
die Wohnungsmärkte
Marktmiete. Die Datengrundlage
Deutschlands in Städten ab 70.000 Einwohnern. berücksichtigt die Wohnungsmärkte
02 | Indicator systemsDeutschlands
in economic and market research.
in Städten ab 70.000 ........................................................
Einwohnern. 6
Indicator systems on real estate market trends.................................................................6
Indicator systems for economic development................................................................... 9
03 | Explorative approach to find leading indicators............................................................. 13
Derive leading indicators from extended cause-effect chains........................................13
Test of various real estate and macroeconomic time series............................................ 14
04 | Correlation of real estate prices among various countries..............................................16
05 | Correlation of other indicators for the real estate market (construction costs, rents)..... 20
06 | Correlation of general economic indicators (GDP, income, consumption).................... 22
07 | Correlation of specific economic indicators (raw materials, transport, energy)............. 26
08 | Results overview.............................................................................................................28
09 | Conclusion......................................................................................................................34
3
2
2
REAL EXPERTS.
REAL EXPERTS.
REAL VALUES.
REAL VALUES.
Erklärung
Erklärung und
1. Use of leading indicatorsPrognose
und Prognose von von Wohnungsmieten
Wohnungsmieten ––
for decisions on investment and disinvestment
Bestimmung
Bestimmung wesentlicher wesentlicher Einflussfaktoren
For many years now private and institutional
Einflussfaktoren
ion of real estate transactions. This means
mittels
mittels Korrelationsanalyse
investors have focused on real estate. In this the pronounced cyclic in many real estate
Korrelationsanalyse
respect there is considerable interest in a markets justifies the repeated purchase and
stable and economically sustainable capital sale of real estate, as well as the associated
investment that can be easily planned. Since costs and workload, in arithmetical terms. Ho-
the beginning of the In new millennium
Zeiten there
hoher Marktdynamik wever,unda tactic that follows
steigender the cycle is often
Wettbewerbsintensität
has been a significantIn Zeiten
increase
sind hoher
in real Marktdynamik
estate
leistungsfähige und Analyse
unsuccessful
Systeme der steigender
due tound Wettbewerbsintensität
unfavourable timing and
Entscheidungsunter-
values in virtually everysind leistungsfähige
European
stützung country.
unverzichtbar. Systeme der Analyse
the Immobilien-
Das corresponding und
loss
und Entscheidungsunter-
of efficiency. arbeitet
Markt-Research
stützung
In this respect, their underpinning unverzichtbar.
with realan Das
dabei insbesondere denImmobilien-
The main
Themenreason und
for Markt-Research
this is the delayarbeitet
Informationserhebung, in the
Kenn-
economic factors such dabei insbesondere
as rents, incomes,
zahlenbewertung an den Themen Informationserhebung,
provision of information
und Potenzialeinschätzung. on real estateist
Entscheidend Kenn-
market
dabei
economic strength and zahlenbewertung
die construction
Kenntnis voncostsund Potenzialeinschätzung.
developments.
Einflussfaktoren, Entscheidend
The ratios
in Bezug auf stated
auf ist latest
in the dabei
immobilienwirt-
differs greatly. Time anddie Kenntnis
again we see
schaftliche von Einflussfaktoren,
cyclical Die
Zielgrößen. in
realvorliegende Bezug
estate market auf
reports
Studie auf immobilienwirt-
are Methoden
zeigt an assessment und
movements with market schaftliche
Ergebnisse Zielgrößen.
values, therefore.
einer solchenDie
of vorliegende
transactions Studie
Parameteranalyse, which zeigt
bezogenwere Methoden
aufinitiated und
and
die Zielgröße
Ergebnisse einer solchen
Marktmiete. Die DatengrundlageParameteranalyse,
executedberücksichtigt bezogen
months ago and auf die Zielgröße
dieinWohnungsmärkte
the case of con-
Marktmiete.
Deutschlands Die
in Datengrundlage
Städten abstruction
70.000berücksichtigt
projects often die
Einwohnern. some Wohnungsmärkte
years ago. New
Deutschlands in Städten ab
Timing of portfolio restructuring 70.000
market Einwohnern.
trends and turning points are thus
almost inevitably identified too late. In many
The right timing of portfolio restructuring cases data-related analytics have to be re-
can generate significant additional income placed by subjective assessments, therefore.
or avoid unnecessary losses. Especially with In the case of larger portfolios and growing
exogenous shocks that impact on the market, requirements in terms of risk management
triggered for example by a financial crisis or and compliance this is increasingly becoming
as of late by the coronavirus pandemic, there a problem.
is a high degree of uncertainty with regard to
future market developments. Even though it
is no longer possible to hedge earlier values Leading indicators in market forecast
once a market decline has already commen-
ced, there is at least the question of the ideal The development of the value of real estate on
point in time for market re-entry. a specific market is a decisive parameter for
The right timing for purchases and sales, as investors and owner-occupiers (profitability,
well as for far-reaching decisions in asset and security), as well as for the remaining social
portfolio management (e.g. a change of use, and economic environment (jobs, taxes, city).
new lease), is thus a parameter that is decisive A market prognosis is generally complicated
to success in the asset and portfolio manage- by the fact that real estate values do not
ment of institutional real estate investors. The develop in a linear manner or in ideal cycles.
precise implementation of this requirement is Real property cycles and crisis scenarios
always difficult in practice. Real estate portfo- follow a very irregular course (for European
lios can only be amended with a major time house price indices see Fig. 1). Accordingly,
delay and with large transaction costs. Time time series-based methods (e.g. chart-based
lags are typical for the fundamental decision- methods) on their own are only of limited
making process and for the corresponding suitability for making market forecasts.
search for, negotiation, approval and execut-
4
2
2
REAL EXPERTS.
REAL EXPERTS.
REAL VALUES.
REAL VALUES.
Erklärung
Erklärung und
und Prognose
Prognose von
von Wohnungsmieten
Wohnungsmieten ––
Bestimmung
Bestimmung wesentlicher
wesentlicher Einflussfaktoren
350.0
Einflussfaktoren
DE AT
300.0
mittels
mittels Korrelationsanalyse
UK
Korrelationsanalyse
NL
250.0
FR BE
Development HPI (2000=100)
200.0
IT SE
150.0
In Zeiten hoher Marktdynamik und steigender Wettbewerbsintensität
SP In
sindZeiten hoher Marktdynamik
leistungsfähige Systeme der und Analyse
steigenderundWettbewerbsintensität
Entscheidungsunter- PL
100.0
sind
stützung unverzichtbar. Das Immobilien- undund
leistungsfähige Systeme der Analyse Entscheidungsunter-
Markt-Research arbeitet
PT CZ
50.0 stützung
dabei insbesondere an den Themen Informationserhebung,arbeitet
unverzichtbar. Das Immobilien- und Markt-Research Kenn-
GR 0.0 dabei insbesondere
zahlenbewertung undan den Themen Informationserhebung,
Potenzialeinschätzung. Entscheidend ist Kenn- dabei HU
zahlenbewertung
die Kenntnis von und Potenzialeinschätzung.
Einflussfaktoren, in Bezug auf Entscheidend ist dabei
auf immobilienwirt-
00 01 02 03die04 05 06 von
Kenntnis 07 Einflussfaktoren,
08 09 10 11 in 12 Bezug
13 14auf 15auf 16 17 18 19
schaftliche Zielgrößen. Die vorliegende Studie zeigt immobilienwirt-
Methoden und
schaftliche Zielgrößen. Die vorliegende Studie
Ergebnisse einer solchen Parameteranalyse, bezogen auf die Zielgröße zeigt Methoden und
Abb. 3: Entwicklung Hauspreisindex (unbereinigt), Wachstum zum Vorjahr, jeweils Minimum, Maximum, Mittelwert, Deutschland;
35.0 Ergebnisse
%Eurostat; eigene Berechnung
Marktmiete. einer solchen Parameteranalyse, bezogen
Die Datengrundlage berücksichtigt die Wohnungsmärkte auf die Zielgröße
Quelle: und Darstellung.
DE Marktmiete.
Deutschlands Diein Datengrundlage
Städten ab 70.000 berücksichtigt
Einwohnern.die Wohnungsmärkte SE
30.0 %
Deutschlands in Städten ab 70.000 Einwohnern.
UK PL
25.0 %
FR Abb. 3: Entwicklung Hauspreisindex (unbereinigt), Wachstum zum Vorjahr, jeweils Minimum, Maximum, Mittelwert, Deutschland; CZ
20.0
Quelle:%Eurostat; eigene Berechnung und Darstellung.
IT HU
15.0 %
SP 10.0 %
PT 5.0 %
Max year
GR
0.0 %
Min year
Change HPI y-o-y
-5.0 %
AT
-10.0 %
NL
-15.0 %
BE
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Fig. 1: Development of the house price indices in 14 European countries;
source: Eurostat; own calculation and illustration.
Even with the progressive digitalisation and of their own, totally separate from other sub-
transparency of the real estate industry the markets, the construction industry and the
delays in market observation cannot be eli- general economic environment, the existence
minated completely. An appropriate reaction of such leading indicators that allow for con-
time in portfolio management can only be at- clusions to be drawn on future developments
tained with other indicators that precede the on the real estate market appears more than
actual market development. In this respect it probable. These indicators are to be sought
is not individual factors which play a role but in parameters that are dependent on the
rather a number of parameters with differing real estate markets or are at least closely
levels of relevance. Accordingly, the search is related to these, yet also in other segments
one for relevant leading indicators. These have of the macroeconomy. The further away an
to be determined in an analytical manner. indicator is from the real estate market in the
As real estate markets do not exist in a world narrower sense, the better the lead time can
5
2
2
REAL EXPERTS.
REAL EXPERTS.
REAL VALUES.
REAL VALUES.
Erklärung
Erklärung und
und Prognose
Prognose von
von Wohnungsmieten
Wohnungsmieten ––
be, but at the same time the interpretation of these in terms of time where possible. What
Bestimmung
Bestimmung wesentlicher
wesentlicher Einflussfaktoren
the correlation becomes more difficult. In the is not initially compulsory for this first ex-
Einflussfaktoren
following a broad-based test is conducted via plorative study is an actual direct causal link
mittels
mittels Korrelationsanalyse
various data streams on the real estate mar- between the respective markets (e.g. supply
Korrelationsanalyse
ket, and also using economic indicators and chain in the construction industry, prices for
commodity prices. What is being sought are newly-built houses, rents). The effects can
indicators which correlate more strongly with also be indirect.
the real estate market and which precede
In Zeiten hoher Marktdynamik und steigender Wettbewerbsintensität
In
sindZeiten hoher Marktdynamik
leistungsfähige Systeme der und Analyse
steigender
undWettbewerbsintensität
Entscheidungsunter-
sind
stützung unverzichtbar. Das Immobilien- undund
leistungsfähige Systeme der Analyse Entscheidungsunter-
Markt-Research arbeitet
stützung
dabei insbesondere an den Themen Informationserhebung,arbeitet
unverzichtbar. Das Immobilien- und Markt-Research Kenn-
2. Indicator systems in economic
dabei
and market
insbesondere
research
zahlenbewertung undan den Themen Informationserhebung,
Potenzialeinschätzung. Entscheidend ist Kenn-
dabei
zahlenbewertung
die Kenntnis von und Potenzialeinschätzung.
Einflussfaktoren, in Bezug aufEntscheidend ist dabei
auf immobilienwirt-
The use of leading indicators
die is von
Kenntnis common “On the Predictive
Einflussfaktoren, in Bezug Content
auf of
aufzeigt Leading Indi-
immobilienwirt-
schaftliche Zielgrößen. Die vorliegende Studie Methoden und
in general economic schaftliche
and marketZielgrößen.
research. Die cators: The Case of
vorliegende StudieU.S. Real Estate
zeigtauf Markets”
Methoden und
Ergebnisse einer solchen Parameteranalyse, bezogen die Zielgröße
Leading indicators for Ergebnisse
the real estate industry
einer solchen (2014). Among
Parameteranalyse, the aspects
bezogen evaluated
auf die were
Zielgröße
Marktmiete. Die Datengrundlage berücksichtigt die Wohnungsmärkte
can thus be based on Marktmiete.
experience gathered
Die in the “Conference Board leading economic
Deutschlands in Datengrundlage
Städten ab 70.000 berücksichtigt
Einwohnern.die Wohnungsmärkte
the course of many yearsDeutschlands in Städten ab 70.000 Einwohnern.leading indicator” for
and on existing mo- index” and the “OECD
dels. Various research results have also been the development of rents. Tests were con-
published for real estate markets in recent ducted with various additional models which
years. These are often only applicable to very also differentiate between market phases
specific sub-markets, situations or problems, (Probit and Markov switching approaches).
however. In the following, examples are pre- For certain indicators it was possible to see
sented from both areas so as to give an im- that these preceded the real estate market
pression of possible approaches and results in by as much as eight quarters. A number of
the determination of leading indicators. German studies on the housing market have a
more long-term approach. Thus Dick/Wester-
heide (ZEW) considered “Determinanten für
Indicator systems on real die langfristige Wertentwicklung von Wohn-
estate market trends immobilien” [Determinants for the long-term
value development of residential real estate]
Real estate market research on leading indi- (2010), whereby above all structural and
cators is often conducted in a quantitative long-term factors such as demographics play
manner, databased therefore and using corre- a role here. Short-term market developments
lation and/or regression analyses. One exam- are not taken into account, therefore.
ple of this is the study by Miller and Sklarz “A The analysis of indicators less closely related
note on leading indicators of housing market to the market, such as commodity prices in
price trends” (1986), which examined the cor- relation to real estate prices, can produce
relation between various real estate market leading indicators in certain macroeconomic
parameters and the prices on the US housing constellations. Thus in “Commodity House
market. As a result it was possible to determi- Prices” (2013) Leung, Shi and Tang examined
ne a number of indicators which preceded the residential markets in Australia and New
the price development to a minor extent (by Zealand. Two economies with a high pro-
up to twelve months). The authors conclude portion of commodity exports and the cor-
that additional indicators from the financial responding price sensitivity were examined,
sector and the real economy are necessary to therefore. The authors noted a fundamental
predict price developments. The analysis of relationship between commodity markets
additional indicators for price changes on the and real estate markets. In the two economies
US real estate market was the subject matter an increase in commodity prices led at least
of the study by Tsolacos, Brooks and Nneji, indirectly to positive income shocks. Via va-
6
2
2
REAL EXPERTS.
REAL EXPERTS.
REAL VALUES.
REAL VALUES.
Erklärung
Erklärung und
und Prognose
Prognose von
von Wohnungsmieten
Wohnungsmieten ––
rious macroeconomic parameters and causal mobilienmärkten: Elemente eines Frühwarn-
Bestimmung
Bestimmung wesentlicher
wesentlicher Einflussfaktoren
chains there are coupling effects to the local systems”, [Speculative price development
Einflussfaktoren
real estate markets. on the real estate markets: Elements of an
mittels
mittels Korrelationsanalyse
Other indicator systems are geared to esta- early-warning system] 2011). The parameters
Korrelationsanalyse
blishing price bubbles and market risks. In his used include various interest rates, price-in-
study “Is the Housing Bubble Collapsing? 10 come ratios related to the real estate market,
Economic Indicators to Watch” (2006) Baker credit and money supply growth, as well as
pointed out ten indicators which can signal
In Zeiten hoher Marktdynamik publicundindebtedness
steigenderratios. The system works
Wettbewerbsintensität
an overheating of the In Zeiten
US hoher
residential Marktdynamik
real with und
varioussteigender
threshold
sind leistungsfähige Systeme der Analyse und Entscheidungsunter- Wettbewerbsintensität
values, which indicate
estate market. Alongsidesind leistungsfähige
transaction figures Systeme
a der
critical Analyse
status if
stützung unverzichtbar. Das Immobilien- und Markt-Research und Entscheidungsunter-
surpassed and encourage
arbeitet
(single-family homes),stützung
dabei insbesondere an den Themen Informationserhebung,arbeitet
these unverzichtbar.
also included Das Immobilien-
reactions at a und Markt-Research
political-fiscal level. Kenn-
dabei
applications for mortgage insbesondere
loans,
zahlenbewertung undan
vacancies den Themen
These and otherInformationserhebung,
Potenzialeinschätzung. realEntscheidend
estate sectorist Kenn-
studies
dabei
and the employment zahlenbewertung
levels in business und
sec- Potenzialeinschätzung.
(Fig. 2) display very Entscheidend
interesting
die Kenntnis von Einflussfaktoren, in Bezug auf auf immobilienwirt- ist dabei
correlations.
die
tors closely related to the Kenntnis von Einflussfaktoren, in Bezug auf
schaftliche Zielgrößen. Die vorliegende Studie zeigt Methodenvery
real estate markets. Unfortunately the points auf
of immobilienwirt-
reference are und
Such indicator systems schaftliche
are alsoeiner
Ergebnisse Zielgrößen.
useful in Die
solchen vorliegende
specific and it isStudie
Parameteranalyse, zeigt
scarcely
bezogen Methoden
possible
auf und
to make
die Zielgröße
current observations of Ergebnisse
the economy einer solchen
and its Parameteranalyse,
any generalisations. bezogen
Outside
Marktmiete. Die Datengrundlage berücksichtigt die Wohnungsmärkte aufof die
theZielgröße
specific
Marktmiete.
management by politicians Diein Datengrundlage
and administra-
Deutschlands Städten ab models
70.000 berücksichtigt
and designated die
Einwohnern. usesWohnungsmärkte
there are hardly
Deutschlands
tors. Thus, DIW Berlin developed in Städten ab
a correspon- any70.000
leadingEinwohnern.
indicators that may be used in a
ding early-warning system for the Federal flexible manner and which are stable in the
Ministry of Finance (cf. Dreger/Kholodilin, medium term at least for real estate markets.
“Spekulative Preisentwicklung an den Im-
AUTHOR/SOURCE TITLE CONTENT/INDICATORS
Miller, Sklarz; A Note On Study of the relationship between various real
The Journal Leading Indicators estate market parameters (incl. sales volume,
number of sold vs. listed properties in a specific
of Real Estate of Housing Market
period) and the price trends on the US housing
Research Vol. 1, Price Trends market; determination of leading predictive
No. 1 (1986) qualities for price developments for as much
as twelve months; observation and analysis of
other indicators from the financial sector and the
real economy noted as being significant for the
prediction of price developments
Is the Housing Presentation of ten indicators to predict develop-
Baker; CEPR
ments on the US residential housing market;
Issue Brief Bubble Collap-
including time series on apartment construction,
(2006) sing? 10 Economic on employment levels in areas closely related to
Indicators to Watch the real estate sector, house price index
Dick, Determinanten für Demographic developments of particular sig-
Westerheide; langfristige Wert- nificance (íncl. development of population and
household figures, increasing burden of taxes as
ZEW-Gutachten entwicklung von
a consequence of society aging), other determin-
(2010) Wohnimmobilien ants are the development of housing supply,
[Determinants for the
financing conditions etc.
longterm value develop-
ment of residential real
estate]
7
2
2
REAL EXPERTS.
REAL EXPERTS.
REAL VALUES.
REAL VALUES.
Erklärung
Erklärung und
und Prognose
Prognose von
von Wohnungsmieten
Wohnungsmieten ––
Bestimmung
Bestimmung wesentlicher
wesentlicher Einflussfaktoren
Dreger, Spekulative Development of an early-warning system by
Einflussfaktoren
Kholodilin; DIW Preisentwicklung DIW Berlin on behalf of the Federal Ministry of
Wochenbericht an den Im- Finance; diagnosis of price development and
mittels
mittels Korrelationsanalyse
Vol. 78 (2011) mobilienmärkten:
Korrelationsanalyse
Elemente eines
forecasting of speculative price-jumps on the
basis of various parameters, e.g. credit growth,
Frühwarnsystems development of per capita GDP, public budget
[Speculative price deficit ratio, liquidity growth
development on the real
Inestate
Zeiten hoher
markets: Marktdynamik
Elements und steigender Wettbewerbsintensität
In Zeiten
of
sind hoher Marktdynamik
an early-warning
leistungsfähige Systeme und Analyse
der steigenderundWettbewerbsintensität
Entscheidungsunter-
system]
sind
stützung unverzichtbar. Das Immobilien- undund
leistungsfähige Systeme der Analyse Entscheidungsunter-
Markt-Research arbeitet
stützung
dabei insbesondere an den Themen Informationserhebung,arbeitet
unverzichtbar. Das Immobilien- und Markt-Research Kenn-
Beracha, dabei insbesondere
Forecasting
zahlenbewertung undan den
StudyThemen Informationserhebung,
of the extent
Potenzialeinschätzung. to Entscheidend ist Kenn-
which online searches
dabei
Wintoki; The zahlenbewertung
Residential
die von und
Kenntnis Real Potenzialeinschätzung.
(Google Search) with the
Einflussfaktoren, in Bezug auf Entscheidend ist dabei
words “real estate”
auf immobilienwirt-
Journal of Real Estate
die or “rent” inincombination
Pricevon Einflussfaktoren,
Kenntnis Bezug aufwith
auf the name of a
immobilienwirt-
schaftliche Zielgrößen. Die vorliegende Studie zeigt Methoden und
location can be used to predict extraordinary
Estate Research Changes from
schaftliche Zielgrößen. Die vorliegende Studie zeigt Methoden und
Vol. 35, No. 3 Ergebnisse einer solchen Parameteranalyse,
Online Search price developments in bezogen auf die Zielgröße
a city; consequently the
Ergebnisse
Marktmiete. einer solchen Parameteranalyse, bezogen auf die Zielgröße
(2013) Activity Die Datengrundlage berücksichtigt
intensity of die Wohnungsmärkte
online search queries can be used to
Marktmiete.
Deutschlands Die
in Datengrundlage
Städten abestablish
70.000berücksichtigt
a deviation (upward
Einwohnern. dieorWohnungsmärkte
downward) from
Deutschlands in Städten ab the70.000 Einwohnern.
average price development on the US market
Leung, Shi, Commodity House Study of the impact of a change in commodity
Tang; Regional Prices prices on house prices in economies dependent
Science and on commodities (ones which primarily export raw
Urban Econo- materials – Australia, New Zealand); highlighting
mics 43 (6) of the fundamental significance of price move-
(2013) ments for raw materials, increases have the same
effect as positive income shocks, energy raw
materials generally have an indirect impact on
macroeconomic parameters, other raw materials
have a more direct impact on local house prices
Tsolacos, On the Predic- Study of the predictive ability of index series
Brooks, Nneji; tive Content of (incl. Conference Board leading economic index,
The Journal Leading Indica- OECD leading indicator) for changes in rents on
of Real Estate tors: The Case of the US real estate market on the basis of various
Research Vol. U.S. Real Estate models (Probit and Markov switching approa-
36, No. 4 (2014) Markets ches); consequently Conference Board leading
economic index has the most exact forecasts on
changes in direction of rent movements, models
in part as much as eight quarters in advance
Ferrari, Pirova- Identifying early Search for and assessment of suitable early
no, Cornacchia; warning indicators warning indicators for real estate-related ban-
European for real estate-re- king crises at EU level as well as for individual
Systemic Risk lated banking countries; test of a number of indicators (e.g.
Board, Occasio- crises credit growth of private households, money
nal Paper Series supply growth, GDP growth in real terms, ratio of
No. 8 (2015) bank loans to GDP, public indebtedness, average
mortgage interest rate); the best performers are
combinations of variables in the framework of
multivariate logit models for the early identifica-
tion of crises; in particular structural real estate
price variables (incl. price-income gap), inflation,
short-term money market variables and credit
variables identified as good indicators
8
2
2
REAL EXPERTS.
REAL EXPERTS.
REAL VALUES.
REAL VALUES.
Erklärung
Erklärung und
und Prognose
Prognose von
von Wohnungsmieten
Wohnungsmieten ––
Bestimmung
Bestimmung wesentlicher
wesentlicher Einflussfaktoren
Marcato, Information Test of the predictive ability of sentiment
Einflussfaktoren
Nando; The Content and Fo- indicators for the US real estate market on the
Journal of Real recasting Ability basis of VAR models; along-side macroeconomic
mittels
mittels Korrelationsanalyse
Estate Research of Sentiment variables (GDP growth rate in real terms, change
Korrelationsanalyse
Vol. 38, No. 2
(2016)
Indicators: Case of
Real Estate Market
in consumer price index etc.), sentiment indica-
tors such as procurement manager index, index
on the mood on the housing market etc. are
included in models; these increase the predictive
In Zeiten hoher Marktdynamik
ability und
of thesteigender Wettbewerbsintensität
tested models for development on
In Zeiten
sind hoher Marktdynamik
leistungsfähige Systeme und Analyse
der steigender
undWettbewerbsintensität
Entscheidungsunter-
real estate markets, primarily restricted to the
sind leistungsfähige
stützung Systeme
unverzichtbar. Das der segment
Analyse
Immobilien-
residential undund Entscheidungsunter-
Markt-Research arbeitet
stützung unverzichtbar.
dabei insbesondere an Das
denImmobilien- und Markt-Research arbeitet
Themen Informationserhebung, Kenn-
dabei insbesondere
zahlenbewertung undan den Themen Informationserhebung,
Potenzialeinschätzung. Entscheidend ist Kenn-
dabei
Wang et al.; Urban Real Estate Construction of a prediction model (support vec-
zahlenbewertung
die Kenntnis von und Potenzialeinschätzung.
Einflussfaktoren, in Bezug Entscheidend
auf auf ist dabei
immobilienwirt-
International Market Early tor machine model) for locations on the housing
Journal of die Kenntnis
schaftliche von
Warning Based Einflussfaktoren,
on
Zielgrößen. market
Die in Bezug
in Peking; Studie
vorliegende auf
among the auf immobilienwirt-
parameters
zeigt Methoden usedund
Computational schaftliche Zielgrößen.
Support Vector
Ergebnisse einer solchenDie vorliegendeindicators
as early-warning
Parameteranalyse, Studie
bezogenzeigt
were the
aufMethoden
ratio of realund
die Zielgröße
Intelligence Machine: A Case
Ergebnisse estate development investments to GDP, ratio of
Marktmiete.einer solchen Parameteranalyse,
Die Datengrundlage bezogen
berücksichtigt auf die Zielgröße
die Wohnungsmärkte
Systems Vol. 13, Study of Beijing
Marktmiete. Die
real estate investments to fixed assets, growth
Datengrundlage berücksichtigt die Wohnungsmärkte
No. 1 (2020) Deutschlands in Städten ab 70.000
rates Einwohnern.
of residential real estate prices
Deutschlands in Städten ab 70.000 Einwohnern.
Fig. 2: Selected studies on real estate sector indicator systems.
Indicator systems for economic Analyse für Deutschland” [Predictive ability
development of leading indicators: The significance of lea-
ding indicators for economic forecasting – An
In general economic research the models analysis for Germany] Hinze studied the sui-
and findings on leading indicators are, as is tability of leading indicators and the quality
to be expected, more diverse, more detailed of indicator systems. In doing so quality yard-
and often also more well-founded than in sticks were developed for leading indicators
the specific segment real estate. Here there (incl. fundamental context, lead time, stability,
is verifiable research going back about one availability) and these were then compared
hundred years. As long ago as at the begin- with well-established indicator systems (incl.
ning of the 1920s the “Harvard Barometer” survey-based systems such as business cli-
was designed, an instrument to assess the mate, statistical analyses on incoming orders).
US economy and predict developments. A In this way leading indicator properties of the
number of leading, coincident and lagging regularly published ifo business expectations
economic indicators were integrated here. vis-a-vis the gross domestic product and
This system was not able to predict the global industrial output could be shown. This lead
economic depression of 1929, however. It did time amounts to a number of months at most,
initiate a number of global research projects a period that is too short to be transferred to
in the field of economic indicators and early- real estate market decisions. In general this is
warning systems (see Winker, “Empirische probably also the case for other opinion- and
Wirtschaftsforschung”, [Empirical Economic survey-based indicators as these sentiments
Research], 1997). In the determination of are usually based on economic changes that
indicators – also – relevant to the real estate are already clearly perceptible.
market a number of studies offer interesting The results in a study by Santero and West-
models. erlund, “Confidence Indicators and Their Re-
For Germany, for example, in the HWWA lationship to Changes in Economic Activity”
paper from 2003 “Prognoseleistung von (1996), are to be seen in a similar light. This
Frühindikatoren: Die Bedeutung von Früh- compares the predictive ability of consumer
indikatoren für Konjunkturprognosen – Eine and corporate surveys on the economic cycle
9
2
2
REAL EXPERTS.
REAL EXPERTS.
REAL VALUES.
REAL VALUES.
Erklärung
Erklärung und
und Prognose
Prognose von
von Wohnungsmieten
Wohnungsmieten ––
in a number of economies. The predictive key data for bonds (e.g. spread Germany and
Bestimmung
Bestimmung wesentlicher
wesentlicher Einflussfaktoren
ability differs from country to country. At the USA with 10-year government bonds). In an
Einflussfaktoren
same time it is established that it is generally expanded observation in “Leading Indicators
mittels
mittels Korrelationsanalyse
only possible to forecast significant changes in a Globalised World” (ECB Working Paper,
Korrelationsanalyse
in a meaningful manner using survey techni- 2009) Fichtner / Rüffer / Schnatz used not
ques. This classification is confirmed by Kho- only regional indicators but also international
lodilin and Kooths in “Konjunkturelle Frühin- parameters and thus optimised the prognosis
dikatoren in der Krise: InWeiche Fakten stärker
Zeiten hoher Marktdynamik for the undrespective
steigender domestic industrial pro-
Wettbewerbsintensität
In
als harte” [Leading economicZeiten hoher
indicators Marktdynamik
in the duction.und steigender Wettbewerbsintensität
sind leistungsfähige Systeme der Analyse und Entscheidungsunter-
sind
crisis: Soft facts are strongerleistungsfähige
stützungthan hard facts]
unverzichtbar.Systeme der Analyse
An Immobilien-
Das interesting und
research
und Entscheidungsunter-
approach arbeitet
Markt-Research is the
stützung
(2009). Accordingly, survey-based unverzichtbar.
indicators Das Immobilien-
evaluation of und
internet Markt-Research
texts,
dabei insbesondere an den Themen Informationserhebung, Kenn- arbeitet
publications and
are above all of use in dabei insbesondere
economically turbulentan den
other Themen
texts. A Informationserhebung,
recent study
zahlenbewertung und Potenzialeinschätzung. Entscheidend ist dabei by Kalamara Kenn-
et
times. Calmer economic zahlenbewertung
phases, in und
contrast, Potenzialeinschätzung.
al. “Making text count: Entscheidend
economic
die Kenntnis von Einflussfaktoren, in Bezug auf auf immobilienwirt- ist dabei
forecasting
are better recorded with die Kenntnis
more
schaftliche von Einflussfaktoren,
complex and Die
Zielgrößen. using in Bezug
newspaper
vorliegende auf(2020)
text”
Studie auf immobilienwirt-
zeigt searched und
Methoden ar-
quantitative prognosisschaftliche
models. Zielgrößen. Die vorliegende
ticles and keywords Studie
fromzeigt Methoden
three
Ergebnisse einer solchen Parameteranalyse, bezogen auf die Zielgröße British und
daily
Concrete ratio prognoses Ergebnisseare einer
Marktmiete. Die solchen Parameteranalyse,
modelled newspapers
Datengrundlage bezogen
(The Guardian,
berücksichtigt auf die
The Zielgröße
Daily
die Wohnungsmärkte Mirror,
more frequently for Marktmiete.
aggregated Die Datengrundlage
economic The berücksichtigt
Daily Mail).
Deutschlands in Städten ab 70.000 Einwohnern. Specific die Wohnungsmärkte
relevant words/word
parameters such as GDP. Deutschlands
Thus Grasmannin Städten
and ab 70.000
groups (e.g.Einwohnern.
“uncertainty”) are counted and
Keereman looked at the topic “An indicator- processed using machine learning processes.
based short-term forecast for quarterly GDP The objective is the forecasting of macroeco-
in the euro area” (2001). Using OLS estimates nomic key indicators such as GDP, inflation
(ordinary least squares) it was possible to and unemployment levels using text-based
determine the quarterly development of GDP predictions. This alternative form of forecas-
relatively well. Indicators included exchange ting can attain good results in particular with
rates, passenger vehicle sales, survey results upcoming crises.
(retail trade, construction industry) as well as
AUTHOR/SOURCE TITLE CONTENT/INDICATORS
Santero, West- Confidence Study of the predictive quality of consumer and
erlund; OECD Indicators and corporate surveys on trade cycles and output
in various economies, corporate surveys have
Economics Their Relationship
advantages over consumer surveys, degree of
Department to Changes in predictive ability varies from country to country,
Working Papers Economic Activity mostly only clear output changes can be antici-
No. 170 (1996) pated in corresponding survey results
Fritsche, Leading Indicators Test of a number of putative leading indicators
Stephan; DIW of German (e.g. ifo Business Climate Index, new orders in the
manufacturing industry, short- and long-term in-
Discussion Business Cycles:
terest rates, money supply) to a reference series
Paper No. 207 An Assessment of for industrial production; in particular ifo indica-
(2000) Properties tors and series for new orders promising, others
only with little predictive ability; VAR model with
four best indicators only suitable with a lead time
of up to three months
10
2
2REAL EXPERTS.
REAL EXPERTS.
REAL VALUES.
REAL VALUES.
Erklärung
Erklärung und
und Prognose
Prognose von
von Wohnungsmieten
Wohnungsmieten ––
Bestimmung
Bestimmung wesentlicher
wesentlicher Einflussfaktoren
Grasmann, An indicator-ba- Quarterly GDP prognosis on the basis of various
Einflussfaktoren
Keereman; sed short-term indicators (incl. effective exchange rate in real
terms, vehicle sales, survey on status in retail
mittels
mittels Korrelationsanalyse
European forecast for
Korrelationsanalyse
trade and construction sector, spread between
Commission quarterly GDP in German and US bonds); generally promising
Economic Paper the euro area results on the basis of OLS estimates
No. 154 (2001)
In Zeiten hoher Marktdynamik und steigender Wettbewerbsintensität
In Zeiten
sind hoher Marktdynamik
leistungsfähige Systeme der und Analyse
steigender undWettbewerbsintensität
Entscheidungsunter-
Hinze; HWWA sind leistungsfähige
stützung unverzichtbar. Das Immobilien- undund
Prognoseleistung Systeme
General der Analyse
study of the Entscheidungsunter-
requirements placed on
Markt-Research lea-
arbeitet
Discus- stützung
von Früh-
dabei unverzichtbar. Das
dingImmobilien-
indicators andund Markt-Research
their quality
insbesondere an den Themen Informationserhebung, Kenn-
for arbeitet
predictions
dabei insbesondere (e.g. ifo Business Informationserhebung,
Climate Index, Early Bird Indica-
sion Paper 236 indikatoren:
zahlenbewertung Die undan den Themen
Potenzialeinschätzung. Entscheidend ist Kenn-
dabei
tor); suitable for short-term forecasts based on
(2003) zahlenbewertung
Bedeutung
die Kenntnis von und Potenzialeinschätzung.
von Einflussfaktoren, in Bezug Entscheidend ist dabei
the current status; otherauf
thanauf
thisimmobilienwirt-
generally only
die KenntnisZielgrößen.
Frühindikatoren
schaftliche von Einflussfaktoren,
Die vorliegende
suited in Bezug
to a limited Studie
degreeauf auf immobilienwirt-
tozeigt Methoden
deriving conclusionsund
schaftliche
für Konjunk-
Ergebnisse Zielgrößen. Die
on vorliegende
developments Studie
in the
einer solchen Parameteranalyse, bezogen auf real zeigt
economyMethoden und
die Zielgröße
Ergebnisse
turprognosen
Marktmiete. einer solchen Parameteranalyse, bezogen
Die Datengrundlage berücksichtigt die Wohnungsmärkte auf die Zielgröße
Marktmiete.
- Eine Analyse
Deutschlands Die
in Datengrundlage
für
Städten ab 70.000 berücksichtigt
Einwohnern.die Wohnungsmärkte
Deutschlands
Deutschland in Städten ab 70.000 Einwohnern.
[Predictive ability of
leading indicators: The
significance of leading
indicators for economic
forecasting – An analy-
sis for Germany]
Fichtner, Rüffer, Leading Indicators Study of the predictive ability of OECD compo-
Schnatz; ECB in a Globalised site leading indicators (CLI) for eleven countries,
in addition to country-specific series and their
Working Paper World
predictive ability for the respective industrial pro-
Series No. 1125 duction, the value added of the implementation
(2009) of international indicators to forecast domestic
development is also tested; models with CLI ge-
nerally prove themselves to be suitable or better
alternatives to tested benchmark models, above
all with a lead time of four to eight months better
results, the inclusion of international CLI series
improves forecasts for some countries, in parti-
cular over the observed time periods, increasing
impact of globalisation in the national context is
highlighted
Kholodilin, Konjunkturelle Creation of a meaningful leading indicator
Kooths; DIW Frühindikatoren in system; comparison of the projection quality of
hard and soft indicators; disaggregated method
Wochenbericht der Krise: Weiche
with leading indicators at sector level perform
Nr. 21 (2009) Fakten stärker als best, survey-based indicators have advantages in
harte times of a turbulent economy, more comprehen-
[Leading economic sive models in calmer times
indicators in the crisis:
Soft facts are stronger
than hard facts]
11
2
2REAL EXPERTS.
REAL EXPERTS.
REAL VALUES.
REAL VALUES.
Erklärung
Erklärung und
und Prognose
Prognose von
von Wohnungsmieten
Wohnungsmieten ––
Bestimmung
Bestimmung wesentlicher
wesentlicher Einflussfaktoren
Drechsel, Outperforming Study of possible improvements to the IMF
Einflussfaktoren
Giesen, Lindner; IMF Forecasts by World Economic Outlook taking into conside-
mittels
mittels Korrelationsanalyse
ration individual leading indicators (e.g. world
IWH Discussion the Use of Leading
Korrelationsanalyse
trade, oil price, OECD leading indicators, global
Papers 4 (2014) Indicators industrial production) for the entire world, as well
as separately in advanced economies and deve-
loping countries; in general improvements to IMF
forecasts can be attained with series observed in
In Zeiten hoher Marktdynamik und steigender Wettbewerbsintensität
In Zeiten hoher the course
Marktdynamik und of a year (on aWettbewerbsintensität
steigender monthly basis), howe-
sind leistungsfähige Systeme der Analyse und Entscheidungsunter-
ver there are differing results for advanced and
sind leistungsfähige Systeme
stützung unverzichtbar. Das der Analyse
Immobilien- und Entscheidungsunter-
und Markt-Research arbeitet
emerging economies
stützung unverzichtbar.
dabei insbesondere an Das
denImmobilien- und Markt-Research arbeitet
Themen Informationserhebung, Kenn-
dabei
zahlenbewertung und Potenzialeinschätzung. Entscheidend ist Kenn-
insbesondere an den Themen Informationserhebung, dabei
Galli; SNB zahlenbewertung
die Kenntnis
Which von und
indicators Potenzialeinschätzung.
Einflussfaktoren,
ConstructioninofBezug Entscheidend
auf
an index forauf monthlyist
the immobilienwirt-dabei
illust-
Working Papers die Kenntnis
schaftliche von
matter? Analyzing Einflussfaktoren,
ration of thein Bezug
Swiss auf
economy auf
as animmobilienwirt-
Zielgrößen. Die vorliegende Studie zeigt Methodentound alternative
Issue 08 (2017) schaftliche
Ergebnisse Zielgrößen.
the Swiss einer solchenDie
business vorliegende
consideration
Parameteranalyse, Studie
of GDP, basedzeigt
bezogen Methoden
on a broad
auf
compila-und
die Zielgröße
Ergebnisse einer solchen tion of available monthly
Parameteranalyse, and quarterly
bezogen auf indicators
die Zielgröße
Marktmiete.
cycle usingDie Datengrundlage berücksichtigt
(total of 17 die Wohnungsmärkte
indicator categories, incl. GDP, labour
Marktmiete.
Deutschlands Die Datengrundlage
a large-scalein Städten ab 70.000 berücksichtigt
Einwohnern. die Wohnungsmärkte
market, construction sector, retail trade sector,
Deutschlands in Städten ab
mixed-frequency 70.000
financial Einwohnern.
markets, consumption, banking sector,
dynamic factor each with numerous variables); broad indicator
set proves to be useful in the factor model for
model
forecasting the Swiss business cycle, taking
into account variables from other economies as
well as the financial sector predicts Swiss GDP
development better than a model merely based
on domestic indicator series not closely related
to the financial markets
Garnitz, Forecasting GDP GDP prognosis in a sample of 44 countries and
Lehmann, all over the world three country aggregates (EU27, eurozone,
world) on the basis of leading survey data
Wohlrabe; using leading
from the ifo World Economic Survey (WES); on
cesifo Working indicators based average WES indicators perform better than
Paper Series on comprehensive autoregressive benchmark models, inclusion of
(2019) survey data WES indicators for the three most important
trading partners often improve the forecast for
the respective domestic GDP development
Forecasting of macroeconomic key parameters
Kalamara et Making text
such as GDP, inflation, level of unemployment by
al.; Bank of count: economic analysing articles (editorials, comment pieces/
England Staff forecasting using opeds) in three British daily newspapers (The
Working Paper newspaper text Guardian, The Daily Mirror, The Daily Mail); test
No. 865 (2020) of various methods from simply counting certain
words/word groups (e.g. uncertainty) through
to a combination of machine learning processes;
text-based forecasts with good performance, in
particular with upcoming crises
Fig. 3: Selected studies on economic indicator systems.
12
2
2REAL EXPERTS.
REAL EXPERTS.
REAL VALUES.
REAL VALUES.
Erklärung
Erklärung und
3. Explorative approach to Prognose
und Prognose von von Wohnungsmieten
find leading indicators
Wohnungsmieten ––
Bestimmung
Bestimmung wesentlicher wesentlicher Einflussfaktoren
From the experiences with and approaches
Einflussfaktoren
which is devoted intensively to parameters
mittels
mittels Korrelationsanalyse
to economic and business research, and also such as rents, purchase prices, vacancies, let-
Korrelationsanalyse
from various real estate market studies, it ting performance, absorption, transaction vo-
is possible to derive potential indicators for lume etc. and which explains the correspon-
which one would assume there to be correla- ding correlations. On the other hand, there is
tions to the real estate In
market.
ZeitenThe correspon-
hoher the large
Marktdynamik und field of macro-economic
steigender research,
Wettbewerbsintensität
ding tests are necessary In
sindZeiten
to rank hoher
the Marktdynamik
relevance.
leistungsfähige whichder
Systeme und steigender
is conducted
Analyse Wettbewerbsintensität
by
und numerous institutes
Entscheidungsunter-
In the framework of this sind leistungsfähige
study
stützung numerous dataSysteme
unverzichtbar. der Analyse
andImmobilien-
Das qualified undund
economists Entscheidungsunter-
and which considers
Markt-Research arbeitet
series have been gatheredstützung
dabei and unverzichtbar. Das
analysed toan factors
insbesondere Immobilien-
den Themen areas of the economy,arbeitet
und Markt-Research
from allInformationserhebung, and in
Kenn-
this end, not only on thedabei insbesondere
real estate
zahlenbewertung market
undinan den Themen
particular from Informationserhebung,
Potenzialeinschätzung.the labour, financial and
Entscheidend ist Kenn-
com-
dabei
the narrower sense, but zahlenbewertung
also
die Kenntnis von und
on the economic Potenzialeinschätzung.
modity markets.
Einflussfaktoren, in Bezug Entscheidend
Interdependence
auf ist dabei
and
auf immobilienwirt- thus
die
environment, such as economic Kenntnis
schaftliche von Einflussfaktoren,
development,
Zielgrößen. Die in
alsovorliegende Bezug
in part leading auf auf
indicators
Studie immobilienwirt-
are discussed
zeigt Methoden und
schaftliche
the prices for raw materials,
Ergebnisse Zielgrößen.
einer solchenDie
transportation, vorliegende
within Studie
the respective
Parameteranalyse, zeigtauf
research
bezogen Methoden
fields. und
Above
die Zielgröße
Ergebnisse
the labour market andMarktmiete.
energy. einer solchen Parameteranalyse,
all in theberücksichtigt
Die Datengrundlage bezogen
field of real estate auf die Zielgröße
research the lead
die Wohnungsmärkte
Marktmiete.
Deutschlands Die
in Datengrundlage
Städten abtime berücksichtigt
is usually
70.000 very short
Einwohnern. die and
Wohnungsmärkte
thus scarcely
Deutschlands in Städten ab 70.000
allows Einwohnern.
for any timely analysis, decision or re-
Derive leading indicators from extended action on the part of the investor. What would
cause-effect chains be interesting is a combination of the respec-
tive cause-effect chains which are the subject
The studies and indicator systems presented of research in both fields. Based on the follo-
above show two largely independent re- wing approach the two research areas are to
search areas to date: on the one hand there is be considered holistically, and interlinked with
extensive real estate market-related research, one another therefore (Fig. 4):
COMPACT CAUSAL CHAINS FROM ORIGINAL RESEARCH FIELDS
(DEDUCTIVE APPROACH)
REAL ESTATE RESEARCH ECONOMIC RESEARCH
Real estate value 3Construction costs 3Construction material costs Construction material costs 3Commodity prices
Real estate value 3Rent3Purchasing power Purchasing power 3Income 3Employment level 3Production
EXTENDED CAUSAL CHAINS FROM COMBINED ECONOMIC AND MARKET RESEARCH
(DEDUCTIVE APPROACH)
Real estate value 3Construction costs 3Construction material costs 3Commodity prices
Real estate value 3Rent 3Purchasing power 3 Income 3Employment level 3Production
DIRECT TEST OF CORRELATIONS AND INDICATORS (INDUCTIVE APPROACH)
Real estate value 3 [???] 3Commodity prices
Real estate value 3 [???] 3Production
Fig. 4: Principle for the ascertainment of leading indicators using an inductive approach.
13
2
2REAL EXPERTS.
REAL EXPERTS.
REAL VALUES.
REAL VALUES.
Erklärung
Erklärung und
und Prognose
Prognose von
von Wohnungsmieten
Wohnungsmieten ––
Typically there is a correlation between the a direct inference on the real estate market
Bestimmung
Bestimmung wesentlicher
wesentlicher Einflussfaktoren
economic strength of a location and its real (shortening of the causal chains by “skipping”
Einflussfaktoren
estate market. Although the absolute price the general economic model).
mittels
mittels Korrelationsanalyse
levels for rents and purchase prices cannot
Korrelationsanalyse
be computed directly from income and
purchasing power ratios, because numerous Test of various real estate and
location-specific factors such as commuter macroeconomic time series
flows, the attractiveness of the city/town,
In Zeiten hoher Marktdynamik und steigender Wettbewerbsintensität
and real estate offerings In
sindZeiten
in the hoherlikewise
region
leistungsfähige Marktdynamik und Analyse
steigender
In an extensive
Systeme der undWettbewerbsintensität
indicator test various data se-
Entscheidungsunter-
have an effect. Abovesind all leistungsfähige
the impact of theSysteme
ries der
are Analyse
compared
stützung unverzichtbar. Das Immobilien- und Markt-Research und
using Entscheidungsunter-
correlation analysis.
arbeitet
regional economic strengthstützung as unverzichtbar.
an individual Das
For Immobilien-
the real und
estate
dabei insbesondere an den Themen Informationserhebung, Markt-Research
market the house arbeitet
price
Kenn-
parameter is often strong dabei insbesondere
enough to gene- an den
index Themen
(HPI) Informationserhebung,
and construction
zahlenbewertung und Potenzialeinschätzung. Entscheidend ist dabei costs Kenn-
index
zahlenbewertung
rate corresponding amendments
die Kenntnis invon und
supply Potenzialeinschätzung.
(CCI) from in
Einflussfaktoren, Eurostat
Bezugand Entscheidend
auf the
aufrent indexist(RI)
dabei
immobilienwirt- of
and demand in the event die Kenntnis
of von
changes, Einflussfaktoren,
and the OECD in
for Bezug
14 auf
European
schaftliche Zielgrößen. Die vorliegende Studie zeigt Methoden und auf
realimmobilienwirt-
estate markets
thus affect real estateschaftliche
prices andeiner
Ergebnisse Zielgrößen.
at a Die
rentssolchen were vorliegende
used.
Parameteranalyse, Studie zeigtauf
bezogen Methoden und
die Zielgröße
Ergebnisse
location. The interdependencies einer
can in solchen
some Parameteranalyse,
The macroeconomic bezogen
Marktmiete. Die Datengrundlage berücksichtigt die Wohnungsmärkteand auf die Zielgröße
socioeconomic
cases only partially beMarktmiete.
visible and/or
Deutschlands Die Datengrundlage
in with a ab
Städten indicators
70.000berücksichtigt
are based ondie
Einwohnern. Wohnungsmärkte
various data series
time lag. Nevertheless, Deutschlands
a trend reversal, in Städten
for abincl.70.000
on GDP Einwohnern.
in real terms, import/export of
example in per capita GDP (an expression of goods, private consumption, unemployment
the economic strength of the location there- rates, number of working hours per person
fore), would also be an important signal for employed, residential construction approvals,
the real estate market. haulage and transportation figures (e.g. con-
A fundamental benefit of the extension of the tainer transhipment), passenger vehicle regis-
real estate market analysis to the upstream trations, prices for raw materials and energy
economic and socioeconomic environment is (e.g. coal, diesel, natural gas, aluminium,
that interesting ratios, prognosis systems and iron ore), as well as interest rates. Insofar as
publications are generally available there in possible country-specific series were utilised,
greater numbers, more frequently and earlier in all other cases the relevant world market
than for the real estate market in the narrower prices. The primary sources used were the
sense. Fundamentally the use of economic publicly-accessible databases of the OECD,
forecasts or the components therein for the Eurostat and IndexMundi. The underlying
real estate markets has an excellent outlook data were fundamentally available with just a
for success. In detail, leading indicators which few exceptions from the year 2000 onwards.
are already used in these systems are interes- An overview of the tested parameters is
ting. It may be possible to use these to draw shown in Fig. 5.
INDICATOR COUNTRIES YEARS SOURCE
House price index 14 of 14 2000-2019 Eurostat
Construction costs index residenti-
14 of 14 2000-2019 Eurostat
al building
Rent index 14 of 14 2000-2019 OECD
Construction approvals (apart-
14 of 14 2000-2016 Eurostat
ments in apartment buildings)
GDP (chain-linked volume) 14 of 14 2000-2019 Eurostat
Industrial production 14 of 14 2000-2019 OECD
Working hours per person
14 of 14 2000-2019 OECD
employed
14
2
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