LEADING INDICATORS FOR THE REAL ESTATE MARKET - REAL ESTATE MARKETS, CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY, MACROECONOMY, COMMODITY PRICES - Empira
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LEADING INDICATORS FOR THE REAL ESTATE MARKET REAL ESTATE MARKETS, CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY, MACROECONOMY, COMMODITY PRICES RESEARCH REPORT SEPTEMBER 2020
REAL EXPERTS. REAL EXPERTS. REAL VALUES. REAL VALUES. Erklärung Erklärung und und Prognose Prognose von von Wohnungsmieten Wohnungsmieten –– Bestimmung Bestimmung wesentlicher wesentlicher Einflussfaktoren Einflussfaktoren mittels LeadingKorrelationsanalyse mittels indicators for the Korrelationsanalyse real estate economy In Zeiten hoher Marktdynamik und steigender Wettbewerbsintensität In sindZeiten hoher Marktdynamik leistungsfähige Systeme derund Analyse steigender undWettbewerbsintensität Entscheidungsunter- Real estate markets, construction activity, sind stützung unverzichtbar. Das Immobilien- undund leistungsfähige Systeme der Analyse Entscheidungsunter- Markt-Research arbeitet stützung dabei insbesondere an den Themen Informationserhebung,arbeitet unverzichtbar. Das Immobilien- und Markt-Research macroeconomy, commodity prices dabei insbesondere zahlenbewertung undan den Themen Informationserhebung, Potenzialeinschätzung. Kenn- Entscheidend ist Kenn- dabei zahlenbewertung die Kenntnis von und Potenzialeinschätzung. Einflussfaktoren, in Bezug auf Entscheidend ist dabei auf immobilienwirt- die KenntnisZielgrößen. schaftliche von Einflussfaktoren, in Bezug Die vorliegende aufzeigt Studie auf immobilienwirt- Methoden und Real estate markets schaftliche are similar Zielgrößen. Die to other markets vorliegende Studie and the zeigt economyund Methoden in Ergebnisse einer solchen Parameteranalyse, bezogen auf die Zielgröße general Ergebnissein that they einer undergo solchen cycles. These cycles Parameteranalyse, are irregular bezogen auf die in terms Zielgröße Marktmiete. Die Datengrundlage berücksichtigt die Wohnungsmärkte of their lengthDie Marktmiete. and amplitude, however. It is always a challenge for insti- Deutschlands in Datengrundlage Städten ab 70.000 berücksichtigt Einwohnern.die Wohnungsmärkte tutional investors Deutschlands to align ab in Städten their real estate 70.000 investments to new market Einwohnern. developments. The search for, negotiation, approval and execution of transactions lead to considerable delays along the time line. The mar- ket data received on a particular day is based on decisions which have generally been taken months beforehand – and in the case of some construction projects many years ago. With this information basis market trends are often identified too late to bring about effective and efficient reactions. As real estate markets do not exist in splendid isolation from the general economic environment, leading indicators elsewhere in the economy can possibly be useful, however. This study is dedicated to the search for corresponding parameters which correlate with the real estate market and precede it where possible, therefore. Thus a number of lea- ding indicators with striking correlations can be identified, which when taken alone do not allow for reliable conclusions to be drawn, but taken as a whole could serve as early indicators for possible developments on the real estate markets. 2 2 2
REAL EXPERTS. REAL EXPERTS. REAL VALUES. REAL VALUES. Erklärung Erklärung und und Prognose Prognose von von Wohnungsmieten Wohnungsmieten –– Bestimmung Bestimmung wesentlicher wesentlicher Einflussfaktoren Einflussfaktoren mittels mittels Korrelationsanalyse Korrelationsanalyse Inhalt In Zeiten hoher Marktdynamik und steigender Wettbewerbsintensität In Zeiten hoher Marktdynamik und Analyse steigender sind leistungsfähige Systeme der undWettbewerbsintensität Entscheidungsunter- sind stützung unverzichtbar. Das Immobilien- undund leistungsfähige Systeme der Analyse Entscheidungsunter- Markt-Research arbeitet stützung dabei insbesondere an den Themen Informationserhebung,arbeitet unverzichtbar. Das Immobilien- und Markt-Research Kenn- 01 | Use of leading indicators dabei for decisions insbesondere zahlenbewertung undonan investment den Themen and disinvestment.......................4 Potenzialeinschätzung. Informationserhebung, Entscheidend ist Kenn- dabei zahlenbewertung die Kenntnis von und Potenzialeinschätzung. Einflussfaktoren, in Bezug auf Entscheidend ist dabei auf immobilienwirt- Timing of portfolio die restructuring...................................................................................... KenntnisZielgrößen. schaftliche von Einflussfaktoren, Die vorliegende in Bezug Studie aufzeigt auf immobilienwirt- Methoden und 4 schaftliche Zielgrößen. Die vorliegende Studie zeigt Methoden und Leading indicatorsErgebnisse in market einer forecast. ..............................................................................4 solchen Parameteranalyse, bezogen auf die Zielgröße Ergebnisse Marktmiete.einer solchen Parameteranalyse, Die Datengrundlage berücksichtigt bezogen auf die Zielgröße die Wohnungsmärkte Marktmiete. Die Datengrundlage Deutschlands in Städten ab 70.000 Einwohnern. berücksichtigt die Wohnungsmärkte 02 | Indicator systemsDeutschlands in economic and market research. in Städten ab 70.000 ........................................................ Einwohnern. 6 Indicator systems on real estate market trends.................................................................6 Indicator systems for economic development................................................................... 9 03 | Explorative approach to find leading indicators............................................................. 13 Derive leading indicators from extended cause-effect chains........................................13 Test of various real estate and macroeconomic time series............................................ 14 04 | Correlation of real estate prices among various countries..............................................16 05 | Correlation of other indicators for the real estate market (construction costs, rents)..... 20 06 | Correlation of general economic indicators (GDP, income, consumption).................... 22 07 | Correlation of specific economic indicators (raw materials, transport, energy)............. 26 08 | Results overview.............................................................................................................28 09 | Conclusion......................................................................................................................34 3 2 2
REAL EXPERTS. REAL EXPERTS. REAL VALUES. REAL VALUES. Erklärung Erklärung und 1. Use of leading indicatorsPrognose und Prognose von von Wohnungsmieten Wohnungsmieten –– for decisions on investment and disinvestment Bestimmung Bestimmung wesentlicher wesentlicher Einflussfaktoren For many years now private and institutional Einflussfaktoren ion of real estate transactions. This means mittels mittels Korrelationsanalyse investors have focused on real estate. In this the pronounced cyclic in many real estate Korrelationsanalyse respect there is considerable interest in a markets justifies the repeated purchase and stable and economically sustainable capital sale of real estate, as well as the associated investment that can be easily planned. Since costs and workload, in arithmetical terms. Ho- the beginning of the In new millennium Zeiten there hoher Marktdynamik wever,unda tactic that follows steigender the cycle is often Wettbewerbsintensität has been a significantIn Zeiten increase sind hoher in real Marktdynamik estate leistungsfähige und Analyse unsuccessful Systeme der steigender due tound Wettbewerbsintensität unfavourable timing and Entscheidungsunter- values in virtually everysind leistungsfähige European stützung country. unverzichtbar. Systeme der Analyse the Immobilien- Das corresponding und loss und Entscheidungsunter- of efficiency. arbeitet Markt-Research stützung In this respect, their underpinning unverzichtbar. with realan Das dabei insbesondere denImmobilien- The main Themenreason und for Markt-Research this is the delayarbeitet Informationserhebung, in the Kenn- economic factors such dabei insbesondere as rents, incomes, zahlenbewertung an den Themen Informationserhebung, provision of information und Potenzialeinschätzung. on real estateist Entscheidend Kenn- market dabei economic strength and zahlenbewertung die construction Kenntnis voncostsund Potenzialeinschätzung. developments. Einflussfaktoren, Entscheidend The ratios in Bezug auf stated auf ist latest in the dabei immobilienwirt- differs greatly. Time anddie Kenntnis again we see schaftliche von Einflussfaktoren, cyclical Die Zielgrößen. in realvorliegende Bezug estate market auf reports Studie auf immobilienwirt- are Methoden zeigt an assessment und movements with market schaftliche Ergebnisse Zielgrößen. values, therefore. einer solchenDie of vorliegende transactions Studie Parameteranalyse, which zeigt bezogenwere Methoden aufinitiated und and die Zielgröße Ergebnisse einer solchen Marktmiete. Die DatengrundlageParameteranalyse, executedberücksichtigt bezogen months ago and auf die Zielgröße dieinWohnungsmärkte the case of con- Marktmiete. Deutschlands Die in Datengrundlage Städten abstruction 70.000berücksichtigt projects often die Einwohnern. some Wohnungsmärkte years ago. New Deutschlands in Städten ab Timing of portfolio restructuring 70.000 market Einwohnern. trends and turning points are thus almost inevitably identified too late. In many The right timing of portfolio restructuring cases data-related analytics have to be re- can generate significant additional income placed by subjective assessments, therefore. or avoid unnecessary losses. Especially with In the case of larger portfolios and growing exogenous shocks that impact on the market, requirements in terms of risk management triggered for example by a financial crisis or and compliance this is increasingly becoming as of late by the coronavirus pandemic, there a problem. is a high degree of uncertainty with regard to future market developments. Even though it is no longer possible to hedge earlier values Leading indicators in market forecast once a market decline has already commen- ced, there is at least the question of the ideal The development of the value of real estate on point in time for market re-entry. a specific market is a decisive parameter for The right timing for purchases and sales, as investors and owner-occupiers (profitability, well as for far-reaching decisions in asset and security), as well as for the remaining social portfolio management (e.g. a change of use, and economic environment (jobs, taxes, city). new lease), is thus a parameter that is decisive A market prognosis is generally complicated to success in the asset and portfolio manage- by the fact that real estate values do not ment of institutional real estate investors. The develop in a linear manner or in ideal cycles. precise implementation of this requirement is Real property cycles and crisis scenarios always difficult in practice. Real estate portfo- follow a very irregular course (for European lios can only be amended with a major time house price indices see Fig. 1). Accordingly, delay and with large transaction costs. Time time series-based methods (e.g. chart-based lags are typical for the fundamental decision- methods) on their own are only of limited making process and for the corresponding suitability for making market forecasts. search for, negotiation, approval and execut- 4 2 2
REAL EXPERTS. REAL EXPERTS. REAL VALUES. REAL VALUES. Erklärung Erklärung und und Prognose Prognose von von Wohnungsmieten Wohnungsmieten –– Bestimmung Bestimmung wesentlicher wesentlicher Einflussfaktoren 350.0 Einflussfaktoren DE AT 300.0 mittels mittels Korrelationsanalyse UK Korrelationsanalyse NL 250.0 FR BE Development HPI (2000=100) 200.0 IT SE 150.0 In Zeiten hoher Marktdynamik und steigender Wettbewerbsintensität SP In sindZeiten hoher Marktdynamik leistungsfähige Systeme der und Analyse steigenderundWettbewerbsintensität Entscheidungsunter- PL 100.0 sind stützung unverzichtbar. Das Immobilien- undund leistungsfähige Systeme der Analyse Entscheidungsunter- Markt-Research arbeitet PT CZ 50.0 stützung dabei insbesondere an den Themen Informationserhebung,arbeitet unverzichtbar. Das Immobilien- und Markt-Research Kenn- GR 0.0 dabei insbesondere zahlenbewertung undan den Themen Informationserhebung, Potenzialeinschätzung. Entscheidend ist Kenn- dabei HU zahlenbewertung die Kenntnis von und Potenzialeinschätzung. Einflussfaktoren, in Bezug auf Entscheidend ist dabei auf immobilienwirt- 00 01 02 03die04 05 06 von Kenntnis 07 Einflussfaktoren, 08 09 10 11 in 12 Bezug 13 14auf 15auf 16 17 18 19 schaftliche Zielgrößen. Die vorliegende Studie zeigt immobilienwirt- Methoden und schaftliche Zielgrößen. Die vorliegende Studie Ergebnisse einer solchen Parameteranalyse, bezogen auf die Zielgröße zeigt Methoden und Abb. 3: Entwicklung Hauspreisindex (unbereinigt), Wachstum zum Vorjahr, jeweils Minimum, Maximum, Mittelwert, Deutschland; 35.0 Ergebnisse %Eurostat; eigene Berechnung Marktmiete. einer solchen Parameteranalyse, bezogen Die Datengrundlage berücksichtigt die Wohnungsmärkte auf die Zielgröße Quelle: und Darstellung. DE Marktmiete. Deutschlands Diein Datengrundlage Städten ab 70.000 berücksichtigt Einwohnern.die Wohnungsmärkte SE 30.0 % Deutschlands in Städten ab 70.000 Einwohnern. UK PL 25.0 % FR Abb. 3: Entwicklung Hauspreisindex (unbereinigt), Wachstum zum Vorjahr, jeweils Minimum, Maximum, Mittelwert, Deutschland; CZ 20.0 Quelle:%Eurostat; eigene Berechnung und Darstellung. IT HU 15.0 % SP 10.0 % PT 5.0 % Max year GR 0.0 % Min year Change HPI y-o-y -5.0 % AT -10.0 % NL -15.0 % BE 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Fig. 1: Development of the house price indices in 14 European countries; source: Eurostat; own calculation and illustration. Even with the progressive digitalisation and of their own, totally separate from other sub- transparency of the real estate industry the markets, the construction industry and the delays in market observation cannot be eli- general economic environment, the existence minated completely. An appropriate reaction of such leading indicators that allow for con- time in portfolio management can only be at- clusions to be drawn on future developments tained with other indicators that precede the on the real estate market appears more than actual market development. In this respect it probable. These indicators are to be sought is not individual factors which play a role but in parameters that are dependent on the rather a number of parameters with differing real estate markets or are at least closely levels of relevance. Accordingly, the search is related to these, yet also in other segments one for relevant leading indicators. These have of the macroeconomy. The further away an to be determined in an analytical manner. indicator is from the real estate market in the As real estate markets do not exist in a world narrower sense, the better the lead time can 5 2 2
REAL EXPERTS. REAL EXPERTS. REAL VALUES. REAL VALUES. Erklärung Erklärung und und Prognose Prognose von von Wohnungsmieten Wohnungsmieten –– be, but at the same time the interpretation of these in terms of time where possible. What Bestimmung Bestimmung wesentlicher wesentlicher Einflussfaktoren the correlation becomes more difficult. In the is not initially compulsory for this first ex- Einflussfaktoren following a broad-based test is conducted via plorative study is an actual direct causal link mittels mittels Korrelationsanalyse various data streams on the real estate mar- between the respective markets (e.g. supply Korrelationsanalyse ket, and also using economic indicators and chain in the construction industry, prices for commodity prices. What is being sought are newly-built houses, rents). The effects can indicators which correlate more strongly with also be indirect. the real estate market and which precede In Zeiten hoher Marktdynamik und steigender Wettbewerbsintensität In sindZeiten hoher Marktdynamik leistungsfähige Systeme der und Analyse steigender undWettbewerbsintensität Entscheidungsunter- sind stützung unverzichtbar. Das Immobilien- undund leistungsfähige Systeme der Analyse Entscheidungsunter- Markt-Research arbeitet stützung dabei insbesondere an den Themen Informationserhebung,arbeitet unverzichtbar. Das Immobilien- und Markt-Research Kenn- 2. Indicator systems in economic dabei and market insbesondere research zahlenbewertung undan den Themen Informationserhebung, Potenzialeinschätzung. Entscheidend ist Kenn- dabei zahlenbewertung die Kenntnis von und Potenzialeinschätzung. Einflussfaktoren, in Bezug aufEntscheidend ist dabei auf immobilienwirt- The use of leading indicators die is von Kenntnis common “On the Predictive Einflussfaktoren, in Bezug Content auf of aufzeigt Leading Indi- immobilienwirt- schaftliche Zielgrößen. Die vorliegende Studie Methoden und in general economic schaftliche and marketZielgrößen. research. Die cators: The Case of vorliegende StudieU.S. Real Estate zeigtauf Markets” Methoden und Ergebnisse einer solchen Parameteranalyse, bezogen die Zielgröße Leading indicators for Ergebnisse the real estate industry einer solchen (2014). Among Parameteranalyse, the aspects bezogen evaluated auf die were Zielgröße Marktmiete. Die Datengrundlage berücksichtigt die Wohnungsmärkte can thus be based on Marktmiete. experience gathered Die in the “Conference Board leading economic Deutschlands in Datengrundlage Städten ab 70.000 berücksichtigt Einwohnern.die Wohnungsmärkte the course of many yearsDeutschlands in Städten ab 70.000 Einwohnern.leading indicator” for and on existing mo- index” and the “OECD dels. Various research results have also been the development of rents. Tests were con- published for real estate markets in recent ducted with various additional models which years. These are often only applicable to very also differentiate between market phases specific sub-markets, situations or problems, (Probit and Markov switching approaches). however. In the following, examples are pre- For certain indicators it was possible to see sented from both areas so as to give an im- that these preceded the real estate market pression of possible approaches and results in by as much as eight quarters. A number of the determination of leading indicators. German studies on the housing market have a more long-term approach. Thus Dick/Wester- heide (ZEW) considered “Determinanten für Indicator systems on real die langfristige Wertentwicklung von Wohn- estate market trends immobilien” [Determinants for the long-term value development of residential real estate] Real estate market research on leading indi- (2010), whereby above all structural and cators is often conducted in a quantitative long-term factors such as demographics play manner, databased therefore and using corre- a role here. Short-term market developments lation and/or regression analyses. One exam- are not taken into account, therefore. ple of this is the study by Miller and Sklarz “A The analysis of indicators less closely related note on leading indicators of housing market to the market, such as commodity prices in price trends” (1986), which examined the cor- relation to real estate prices, can produce relation between various real estate market leading indicators in certain macroeconomic parameters and the prices on the US housing constellations. Thus in “Commodity House market. As a result it was possible to determi- Prices” (2013) Leung, Shi and Tang examined ne a number of indicators which preceded the residential markets in Australia and New the price development to a minor extent (by Zealand. Two economies with a high pro- up to twelve months). The authors conclude portion of commodity exports and the cor- that additional indicators from the financial responding price sensitivity were examined, sector and the real economy are necessary to therefore. The authors noted a fundamental predict price developments. The analysis of relationship between commodity markets additional indicators for price changes on the and real estate markets. In the two economies US real estate market was the subject matter an increase in commodity prices led at least of the study by Tsolacos, Brooks and Nneji, indirectly to positive income shocks. Via va- 6 2 2
REAL EXPERTS. REAL EXPERTS. REAL VALUES. REAL VALUES. Erklärung Erklärung und und Prognose Prognose von von Wohnungsmieten Wohnungsmieten –– rious macroeconomic parameters and causal mobilienmärkten: Elemente eines Frühwarn- Bestimmung Bestimmung wesentlicher wesentlicher Einflussfaktoren chains there are coupling effects to the local systems”, [Speculative price development Einflussfaktoren real estate markets. on the real estate markets: Elements of an mittels mittels Korrelationsanalyse Other indicator systems are geared to esta- early-warning system] 2011). The parameters Korrelationsanalyse blishing price bubbles and market risks. In his used include various interest rates, price-in- study “Is the Housing Bubble Collapsing? 10 come ratios related to the real estate market, Economic Indicators to Watch” (2006) Baker credit and money supply growth, as well as pointed out ten indicators which can signal In Zeiten hoher Marktdynamik publicundindebtedness steigenderratios. The system works Wettbewerbsintensität an overheating of the In Zeiten US hoher residential Marktdynamik real with und varioussteigender threshold sind leistungsfähige Systeme der Analyse und Entscheidungsunter- Wettbewerbsintensität values, which indicate estate market. Alongsidesind leistungsfähige transaction figures Systeme a der critical Analyse status if stützung unverzichtbar. Das Immobilien- und Markt-Research und Entscheidungsunter- surpassed and encourage arbeitet (single-family homes),stützung dabei insbesondere an den Themen Informationserhebung,arbeitet these unverzichtbar. also included Das Immobilien- reactions at a und Markt-Research political-fiscal level. Kenn- dabei applications for mortgage insbesondere loans, zahlenbewertung undan vacancies den Themen These and otherInformationserhebung, Potenzialeinschätzung. realEntscheidend estate sectorist Kenn- studies dabei and the employment zahlenbewertung levels in business und sec- Potenzialeinschätzung. (Fig. 2) display very Entscheidend interesting die Kenntnis von Einflussfaktoren, in Bezug auf auf immobilienwirt- ist dabei correlations. die tors closely related to the Kenntnis von Einflussfaktoren, in Bezug auf schaftliche Zielgrößen. Die vorliegende Studie zeigt Methodenvery real estate markets. Unfortunately the points auf of immobilienwirt- reference are und Such indicator systems schaftliche are alsoeiner Ergebnisse Zielgrößen. useful in Die solchen vorliegende specific and it isStudie Parameteranalyse, zeigt scarcely bezogen Methoden possible auf und to make die Zielgröße current observations of Ergebnisse the economy einer solchen and its Parameteranalyse, any generalisations. bezogen Outside Marktmiete. Die Datengrundlage berücksichtigt die Wohnungsmärkte aufof die theZielgröße specific Marktmiete. management by politicians Diein Datengrundlage and administra- Deutschlands Städten ab models 70.000 berücksichtigt and designated die Einwohnern. usesWohnungsmärkte there are hardly Deutschlands tors. Thus, DIW Berlin developed in Städten ab a correspon- any70.000 leadingEinwohnern. indicators that may be used in a ding early-warning system for the Federal flexible manner and which are stable in the Ministry of Finance (cf. Dreger/Kholodilin, medium term at least for real estate markets. “Spekulative Preisentwicklung an den Im- AUTHOR/SOURCE TITLE CONTENT/INDICATORS Miller, Sklarz; A Note On Study of the relationship between various real The Journal Leading Indicators estate market parameters (incl. sales volume, number of sold vs. listed properties in a specific of Real Estate of Housing Market period) and the price trends on the US housing Research Vol. 1, Price Trends market; determination of leading predictive No. 1 (1986) qualities for price developments for as much as twelve months; observation and analysis of other indicators from the financial sector and the real economy noted as being significant for the prediction of price developments Is the Housing Presentation of ten indicators to predict develop- Baker; CEPR ments on the US residential housing market; Issue Brief Bubble Collap- including time series on apartment construction, (2006) sing? 10 Economic on employment levels in areas closely related to Indicators to Watch the real estate sector, house price index Dick, Determinanten für Demographic developments of particular sig- Westerheide; langfristige Wert- nificance (íncl. development of population and household figures, increasing burden of taxes as ZEW-Gutachten entwicklung von a consequence of society aging), other determin- (2010) Wohnimmobilien ants are the development of housing supply, [Determinants for the financing conditions etc. longterm value develop- ment of residential real estate] 7 2 2
REAL EXPERTS. REAL EXPERTS. REAL VALUES. REAL VALUES. Erklärung Erklärung und und Prognose Prognose von von Wohnungsmieten Wohnungsmieten –– Bestimmung Bestimmung wesentlicher wesentlicher Einflussfaktoren Dreger, Spekulative Development of an early-warning system by Einflussfaktoren Kholodilin; DIW Preisentwicklung DIW Berlin on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Wochenbericht an den Im- Finance; diagnosis of price development and mittels mittels Korrelationsanalyse Vol. 78 (2011) mobilienmärkten: Korrelationsanalyse Elemente eines forecasting of speculative price-jumps on the basis of various parameters, e.g. credit growth, Frühwarnsystems development of per capita GDP, public budget [Speculative price deficit ratio, liquidity growth development on the real Inestate Zeiten hoher markets: Marktdynamik Elements und steigender Wettbewerbsintensität In Zeiten of sind hoher Marktdynamik an early-warning leistungsfähige Systeme und Analyse der steigenderundWettbewerbsintensität Entscheidungsunter- system] sind stützung unverzichtbar. Das Immobilien- undund leistungsfähige Systeme der Analyse Entscheidungsunter- Markt-Research arbeitet stützung dabei insbesondere an den Themen Informationserhebung,arbeitet unverzichtbar. Das Immobilien- und Markt-Research Kenn- Beracha, dabei insbesondere Forecasting zahlenbewertung undan den StudyThemen Informationserhebung, of the extent Potenzialeinschätzung. to Entscheidend ist Kenn- which online searches dabei Wintoki; The zahlenbewertung Residential die von und Kenntnis Real Potenzialeinschätzung. (Google Search) with the Einflussfaktoren, in Bezug auf Entscheidend ist dabei words “real estate” auf immobilienwirt- Journal of Real Estate die or “rent” inincombination Pricevon Einflussfaktoren, Kenntnis Bezug aufwith auf the name of a immobilienwirt- schaftliche Zielgrößen. Die vorliegende Studie zeigt Methoden und location can be used to predict extraordinary Estate Research Changes from schaftliche Zielgrößen. Die vorliegende Studie zeigt Methoden und Vol. 35, No. 3 Ergebnisse einer solchen Parameteranalyse, Online Search price developments in bezogen auf die Zielgröße a city; consequently the Ergebnisse Marktmiete. einer solchen Parameteranalyse, bezogen auf die Zielgröße (2013) Activity Die Datengrundlage berücksichtigt intensity of die Wohnungsmärkte online search queries can be used to Marktmiete. Deutschlands Die in Datengrundlage Städten abestablish 70.000berücksichtigt a deviation (upward Einwohnern. dieorWohnungsmärkte downward) from Deutschlands in Städten ab the70.000 Einwohnern. average price development on the US market Leung, Shi, Commodity House Study of the impact of a change in commodity Tang; Regional Prices prices on house prices in economies dependent Science and on commodities (ones which primarily export raw Urban Econo- materials – Australia, New Zealand); highlighting mics 43 (6) of the fundamental significance of price move- (2013) ments for raw materials, increases have the same effect as positive income shocks, energy raw materials generally have an indirect impact on macroeconomic parameters, other raw materials have a more direct impact on local house prices Tsolacos, On the Predic- Study of the predictive ability of index series Brooks, Nneji; tive Content of (incl. Conference Board leading economic index, The Journal Leading Indica- OECD leading indicator) for changes in rents on of Real Estate tors: The Case of the US real estate market on the basis of various Research Vol. U.S. Real Estate models (Probit and Markov switching approa- 36, No. 4 (2014) Markets ches); consequently Conference Board leading economic index has the most exact forecasts on changes in direction of rent movements, models in part as much as eight quarters in advance Ferrari, Pirova- Identifying early Search for and assessment of suitable early no, Cornacchia; warning indicators warning indicators for real estate-related ban- European for real estate-re- king crises at EU level as well as for individual Systemic Risk lated banking countries; test of a number of indicators (e.g. Board, Occasio- crises credit growth of private households, money nal Paper Series supply growth, GDP growth in real terms, ratio of No. 8 (2015) bank loans to GDP, public indebtedness, average mortgage interest rate); the best performers are combinations of variables in the framework of multivariate logit models for the early identifica- tion of crises; in particular structural real estate price variables (incl. price-income gap), inflation, short-term money market variables and credit variables identified as good indicators 8 2 2
REAL EXPERTS. REAL EXPERTS. REAL VALUES. REAL VALUES. Erklärung Erklärung und und Prognose Prognose von von Wohnungsmieten Wohnungsmieten –– Bestimmung Bestimmung wesentlicher wesentlicher Einflussfaktoren Marcato, Information Test of the predictive ability of sentiment Einflussfaktoren Nando; The Content and Fo- indicators for the US real estate market on the Journal of Real recasting Ability basis of VAR models; along-side macroeconomic mittels mittels Korrelationsanalyse Estate Research of Sentiment variables (GDP growth rate in real terms, change Korrelationsanalyse Vol. 38, No. 2 (2016) Indicators: Case of Real Estate Market in consumer price index etc.), sentiment indica- tors such as procurement manager index, index on the mood on the housing market etc. are included in models; these increase the predictive In Zeiten hoher Marktdynamik ability und of thesteigender Wettbewerbsintensität tested models for development on In Zeiten sind hoher Marktdynamik leistungsfähige Systeme und Analyse der steigender undWettbewerbsintensität Entscheidungsunter- real estate markets, primarily restricted to the sind leistungsfähige stützung Systeme unverzichtbar. Das der segment Analyse Immobilien- residential undund Entscheidungsunter- Markt-Research arbeitet stützung unverzichtbar. dabei insbesondere an Das denImmobilien- und Markt-Research arbeitet Themen Informationserhebung, Kenn- dabei insbesondere zahlenbewertung undan den Themen Informationserhebung, Potenzialeinschätzung. Entscheidend ist Kenn- dabei Wang et al.; Urban Real Estate Construction of a prediction model (support vec- zahlenbewertung die Kenntnis von und Potenzialeinschätzung. Einflussfaktoren, in Bezug Entscheidend auf auf ist dabei immobilienwirt- International Market Early tor machine model) for locations on the housing Journal of die Kenntnis schaftliche von Warning Based Einflussfaktoren, on Zielgrößen. market Die in Bezug in Peking; Studie vorliegende auf among the auf immobilienwirt- parameters zeigt Methoden usedund Computational schaftliche Zielgrößen. Support Vector Ergebnisse einer solchenDie vorliegendeindicators as early-warning Parameteranalyse, Studie bezogenzeigt were the aufMethoden ratio of realund die Zielgröße Intelligence Machine: A Case Ergebnisse estate development investments to GDP, ratio of Marktmiete.einer solchen Parameteranalyse, Die Datengrundlage bezogen berücksichtigt auf die Zielgröße die Wohnungsmärkte Systems Vol. 13, Study of Beijing Marktmiete. Die real estate investments to fixed assets, growth Datengrundlage berücksichtigt die Wohnungsmärkte No. 1 (2020) Deutschlands in Städten ab 70.000 rates Einwohnern. of residential real estate prices Deutschlands in Städten ab 70.000 Einwohnern. Fig. 2: Selected studies on real estate sector indicator systems. Indicator systems for economic Analyse für Deutschland” [Predictive ability development of leading indicators: The significance of lea- ding indicators for economic forecasting – An In general economic research the models analysis for Germany] Hinze studied the sui- and findings on leading indicators are, as is tability of leading indicators and the quality to be expected, more diverse, more detailed of indicator systems. In doing so quality yard- and often also more well-founded than in sticks were developed for leading indicators the specific segment real estate. Here there (incl. fundamental context, lead time, stability, is verifiable research going back about one availability) and these were then compared hundred years. As long ago as at the begin- with well-established indicator systems (incl. ning of the 1920s the “Harvard Barometer” survey-based systems such as business cli- was designed, an instrument to assess the mate, statistical analyses on incoming orders). US economy and predict developments. A In this way leading indicator properties of the number of leading, coincident and lagging regularly published ifo business expectations economic indicators were integrated here. vis-a-vis the gross domestic product and This system was not able to predict the global industrial output could be shown. This lead economic depression of 1929, however. It did time amounts to a number of months at most, initiate a number of global research projects a period that is too short to be transferred to in the field of economic indicators and early- real estate market decisions. In general this is warning systems (see Winker, “Empirische probably also the case for other opinion- and Wirtschaftsforschung”, [Empirical Economic survey-based indicators as these sentiments Research], 1997). In the determination of are usually based on economic changes that indicators – also – relevant to the real estate are already clearly perceptible. market a number of studies offer interesting The results in a study by Santero and West- models. erlund, “Confidence Indicators and Their Re- For Germany, for example, in the HWWA lationship to Changes in Economic Activity” paper from 2003 “Prognoseleistung von (1996), are to be seen in a similar light. This Frühindikatoren: Die Bedeutung von Früh- compares the predictive ability of consumer indikatoren für Konjunkturprognosen – Eine and corporate surveys on the economic cycle 9 2 2
REAL EXPERTS. REAL EXPERTS. REAL VALUES. REAL VALUES. Erklärung Erklärung und und Prognose Prognose von von Wohnungsmieten Wohnungsmieten –– in a number of economies. The predictive key data for bonds (e.g. spread Germany and Bestimmung Bestimmung wesentlicher wesentlicher Einflussfaktoren ability differs from country to country. At the USA with 10-year government bonds). In an Einflussfaktoren same time it is established that it is generally expanded observation in “Leading Indicators mittels mittels Korrelationsanalyse only possible to forecast significant changes in a Globalised World” (ECB Working Paper, Korrelationsanalyse in a meaningful manner using survey techni- 2009) Fichtner / Rüffer / Schnatz used not ques. This classification is confirmed by Kho- only regional indicators but also international lodilin and Kooths in “Konjunkturelle Frühin- parameters and thus optimised the prognosis dikatoren in der Krise: InWeiche Fakten stärker Zeiten hoher Marktdynamik for the undrespective steigender domestic industrial pro- Wettbewerbsintensität In als harte” [Leading economicZeiten hoher indicators Marktdynamik in the duction.und steigender Wettbewerbsintensität sind leistungsfähige Systeme der Analyse und Entscheidungsunter- sind crisis: Soft facts are strongerleistungsfähige stützungthan hard facts] unverzichtbar.Systeme der Analyse An Immobilien- Das interesting und research und Entscheidungsunter- approach arbeitet Markt-Research is the stützung (2009). Accordingly, survey-based unverzichtbar. indicators Das Immobilien- evaluation of und internet Markt-Research texts, dabei insbesondere an den Themen Informationserhebung, Kenn- arbeitet publications and are above all of use in dabei insbesondere economically turbulentan den other Themen texts. A Informationserhebung, recent study zahlenbewertung und Potenzialeinschätzung. Entscheidend ist dabei by Kalamara Kenn- et times. Calmer economic zahlenbewertung phases, in und contrast, Potenzialeinschätzung. al. “Making text count: Entscheidend economic die Kenntnis von Einflussfaktoren, in Bezug auf auf immobilienwirt- ist dabei forecasting are better recorded with die Kenntnis more schaftliche von Einflussfaktoren, complex and Die Zielgrößen. using in Bezug newspaper vorliegende auf(2020) text” Studie auf immobilienwirt- zeigt searched und Methoden ar- quantitative prognosisschaftliche models. Zielgrößen. Die vorliegende ticles and keywords Studie fromzeigt Methoden three Ergebnisse einer solchen Parameteranalyse, bezogen auf die Zielgröße British und daily Concrete ratio prognoses Ergebnisseare einer Marktmiete. Die solchen Parameteranalyse, modelled newspapers Datengrundlage bezogen (The Guardian, berücksichtigt auf die The Zielgröße Daily die Wohnungsmärkte Mirror, more frequently for Marktmiete. aggregated Die Datengrundlage economic The berücksichtigt Daily Mail). Deutschlands in Städten ab 70.000 Einwohnern. Specific die Wohnungsmärkte relevant words/word parameters such as GDP. Deutschlands Thus Grasmannin Städten and ab 70.000 groups (e.g.Einwohnern. “uncertainty”) are counted and Keereman looked at the topic “An indicator- processed using machine learning processes. based short-term forecast for quarterly GDP The objective is the forecasting of macroeco- in the euro area” (2001). Using OLS estimates nomic key indicators such as GDP, inflation (ordinary least squares) it was possible to and unemployment levels using text-based determine the quarterly development of GDP predictions. This alternative form of forecas- relatively well. Indicators included exchange ting can attain good results in particular with rates, passenger vehicle sales, survey results upcoming crises. (retail trade, construction industry) as well as AUTHOR/SOURCE TITLE CONTENT/INDICATORS Santero, West- Confidence Study of the predictive quality of consumer and erlund; OECD Indicators and corporate surveys on trade cycles and output in various economies, corporate surveys have Economics Their Relationship advantages over consumer surveys, degree of Department to Changes in predictive ability varies from country to country, Working Papers Economic Activity mostly only clear output changes can be antici- No. 170 (1996) pated in corresponding survey results Fritsche, Leading Indicators Test of a number of putative leading indicators Stephan; DIW of German (e.g. ifo Business Climate Index, new orders in the manufacturing industry, short- and long-term in- Discussion Business Cycles: terest rates, money supply) to a reference series Paper No. 207 An Assessment of for industrial production; in particular ifo indica- (2000) Properties tors and series for new orders promising, others only with little predictive ability; VAR model with four best indicators only suitable with a lead time of up to three months 10 2 2
REAL EXPERTS. REAL EXPERTS. REAL VALUES. REAL VALUES. Erklärung Erklärung und und Prognose Prognose von von Wohnungsmieten Wohnungsmieten –– Bestimmung Bestimmung wesentlicher wesentlicher Einflussfaktoren Grasmann, An indicator-ba- Quarterly GDP prognosis on the basis of various Einflussfaktoren Keereman; sed short-term indicators (incl. effective exchange rate in real terms, vehicle sales, survey on status in retail mittels mittels Korrelationsanalyse European forecast for Korrelationsanalyse trade and construction sector, spread between Commission quarterly GDP in German and US bonds); generally promising Economic Paper the euro area results on the basis of OLS estimates No. 154 (2001) In Zeiten hoher Marktdynamik und steigender Wettbewerbsintensität In Zeiten sind hoher Marktdynamik leistungsfähige Systeme der und Analyse steigender undWettbewerbsintensität Entscheidungsunter- Hinze; HWWA sind leistungsfähige stützung unverzichtbar. Das Immobilien- undund Prognoseleistung Systeme General der Analyse study of the Entscheidungsunter- requirements placed on Markt-Research lea- arbeitet Discus- stützung von Früh- dabei unverzichtbar. Das dingImmobilien- indicators andund Markt-Research their quality insbesondere an den Themen Informationserhebung, Kenn- for arbeitet predictions dabei insbesondere (e.g. ifo Business Informationserhebung, Climate Index, Early Bird Indica- sion Paper 236 indikatoren: zahlenbewertung Die undan den Themen Potenzialeinschätzung. Entscheidend ist Kenn- dabei tor); suitable for short-term forecasts based on (2003) zahlenbewertung Bedeutung die Kenntnis von und Potenzialeinschätzung. von Einflussfaktoren, in Bezug Entscheidend ist dabei the current status; otherauf thanauf thisimmobilienwirt- generally only die KenntnisZielgrößen. Frühindikatoren schaftliche von Einflussfaktoren, Die vorliegende suited in Bezug to a limited Studie degreeauf auf immobilienwirt- tozeigt Methoden deriving conclusionsund schaftliche für Konjunk- Ergebnisse Zielgrößen. Die on vorliegende developments Studie in the einer solchen Parameteranalyse, bezogen auf real zeigt economyMethoden und die Zielgröße Ergebnisse turprognosen Marktmiete. einer solchen Parameteranalyse, bezogen Die Datengrundlage berücksichtigt die Wohnungsmärkte auf die Zielgröße Marktmiete. - Eine Analyse Deutschlands Die in Datengrundlage für Städten ab 70.000 berücksichtigt Einwohnern.die Wohnungsmärkte Deutschlands Deutschland in Städten ab 70.000 Einwohnern. [Predictive ability of leading indicators: The significance of leading indicators for economic forecasting – An analy- sis for Germany] Fichtner, Rüffer, Leading Indicators Study of the predictive ability of OECD compo- Schnatz; ECB in a Globalised site leading indicators (CLI) for eleven countries, in addition to country-specific series and their Working Paper World predictive ability for the respective industrial pro- Series No. 1125 duction, the value added of the implementation (2009) of international indicators to forecast domestic development is also tested; models with CLI ge- nerally prove themselves to be suitable or better alternatives to tested benchmark models, above all with a lead time of four to eight months better results, the inclusion of international CLI series improves forecasts for some countries, in parti- cular over the observed time periods, increasing impact of globalisation in the national context is highlighted Kholodilin, Konjunkturelle Creation of a meaningful leading indicator Kooths; DIW Frühindikatoren in system; comparison of the projection quality of hard and soft indicators; disaggregated method Wochenbericht der Krise: Weiche with leading indicators at sector level perform Nr. 21 (2009) Fakten stärker als best, survey-based indicators have advantages in harte times of a turbulent economy, more comprehen- [Leading economic sive models in calmer times indicators in the crisis: Soft facts are stronger than hard facts] 11 2 2
REAL EXPERTS. REAL EXPERTS. REAL VALUES. REAL VALUES. Erklärung Erklärung und und Prognose Prognose von von Wohnungsmieten Wohnungsmieten –– Bestimmung Bestimmung wesentlicher wesentlicher Einflussfaktoren Drechsel, Outperforming Study of possible improvements to the IMF Einflussfaktoren Giesen, Lindner; IMF Forecasts by World Economic Outlook taking into conside- mittels mittels Korrelationsanalyse ration individual leading indicators (e.g. world IWH Discussion the Use of Leading Korrelationsanalyse trade, oil price, OECD leading indicators, global Papers 4 (2014) Indicators industrial production) for the entire world, as well as separately in advanced economies and deve- loping countries; in general improvements to IMF forecasts can be attained with series observed in In Zeiten hoher Marktdynamik und steigender Wettbewerbsintensität In Zeiten hoher the course Marktdynamik und of a year (on aWettbewerbsintensität steigender monthly basis), howe- sind leistungsfähige Systeme der Analyse und Entscheidungsunter- ver there are differing results for advanced and sind leistungsfähige Systeme stützung unverzichtbar. Das der Analyse Immobilien- und Entscheidungsunter- und Markt-Research arbeitet emerging economies stützung unverzichtbar. dabei insbesondere an Das denImmobilien- und Markt-Research arbeitet Themen Informationserhebung, Kenn- dabei zahlenbewertung und Potenzialeinschätzung. Entscheidend ist Kenn- insbesondere an den Themen Informationserhebung, dabei Galli; SNB zahlenbewertung die Kenntnis Which von und indicators Potenzialeinschätzung. Einflussfaktoren, ConstructioninofBezug Entscheidend auf an index forauf monthlyist the immobilienwirt-dabei illust- Working Papers die Kenntnis schaftliche von matter? Analyzing Einflussfaktoren, ration of thein Bezug Swiss auf economy auf as animmobilienwirt- Zielgrößen. Die vorliegende Studie zeigt Methodentound alternative Issue 08 (2017) schaftliche Ergebnisse Zielgrößen. the Swiss einer solchenDie business vorliegende consideration Parameteranalyse, Studie of GDP, basedzeigt bezogen Methoden on a broad auf compila-und die Zielgröße Ergebnisse einer solchen tion of available monthly Parameteranalyse, and quarterly bezogen auf indicators die Zielgröße Marktmiete. cycle usingDie Datengrundlage berücksichtigt (total of 17 die Wohnungsmärkte indicator categories, incl. GDP, labour Marktmiete. Deutschlands Die Datengrundlage a large-scalein Städten ab 70.000 berücksichtigt Einwohnern. die Wohnungsmärkte market, construction sector, retail trade sector, Deutschlands in Städten ab mixed-frequency 70.000 financial Einwohnern. markets, consumption, banking sector, dynamic factor each with numerous variables); broad indicator set proves to be useful in the factor model for model forecasting the Swiss business cycle, taking into account variables from other economies as well as the financial sector predicts Swiss GDP development better than a model merely based on domestic indicator series not closely related to the financial markets Garnitz, Forecasting GDP GDP prognosis in a sample of 44 countries and Lehmann, all over the world three country aggregates (EU27, eurozone, world) on the basis of leading survey data Wohlrabe; using leading from the ifo World Economic Survey (WES); on cesifo Working indicators based average WES indicators perform better than Paper Series on comprehensive autoregressive benchmark models, inclusion of (2019) survey data WES indicators for the three most important trading partners often improve the forecast for the respective domestic GDP development Forecasting of macroeconomic key parameters Kalamara et Making text such as GDP, inflation, level of unemployment by al.; Bank of count: economic analysing articles (editorials, comment pieces/ England Staff forecasting using opeds) in three British daily newspapers (The Working Paper newspaper text Guardian, The Daily Mirror, The Daily Mail); test No. 865 (2020) of various methods from simply counting certain words/word groups (e.g. uncertainty) through to a combination of machine learning processes; text-based forecasts with good performance, in particular with upcoming crises Fig. 3: Selected studies on economic indicator systems. 12 2 2
REAL EXPERTS. REAL EXPERTS. REAL VALUES. REAL VALUES. Erklärung Erklärung und 3. Explorative approach to Prognose und Prognose von von Wohnungsmieten find leading indicators Wohnungsmieten –– Bestimmung Bestimmung wesentlicher wesentlicher Einflussfaktoren From the experiences with and approaches Einflussfaktoren which is devoted intensively to parameters mittels mittels Korrelationsanalyse to economic and business research, and also such as rents, purchase prices, vacancies, let- Korrelationsanalyse from various real estate market studies, it ting performance, absorption, transaction vo- is possible to derive potential indicators for lume etc. and which explains the correspon- which one would assume there to be correla- ding correlations. On the other hand, there is tions to the real estate In market. ZeitenThe correspon- hoher the large Marktdynamik und field of macro-economic steigender research, Wettbewerbsintensität ding tests are necessary In sindZeiten to rank hoher the Marktdynamik relevance. leistungsfähige whichder Systeme und steigender is conducted Analyse Wettbewerbsintensität by und numerous institutes Entscheidungsunter- In the framework of this sind leistungsfähige study stützung numerous dataSysteme unverzichtbar. der Analyse andImmobilien- Das qualified undund economists Entscheidungsunter- and which considers Markt-Research arbeitet series have been gatheredstützung dabei and unverzichtbar. Das analysed toan factors insbesondere Immobilien- den Themen areas of the economy,arbeitet und Markt-Research from allInformationserhebung, and in Kenn- this end, not only on thedabei insbesondere real estate zahlenbewertung market undinan den Themen particular from Informationserhebung, Potenzialeinschätzung.the labour, financial and Entscheidend ist Kenn- com- dabei the narrower sense, but zahlenbewertung also die Kenntnis von und on the economic Potenzialeinschätzung. modity markets. Einflussfaktoren, in Bezug Entscheidend Interdependence auf ist dabei and auf immobilienwirt- thus die environment, such as economic Kenntnis schaftliche von Einflussfaktoren, development, Zielgrößen. Die in alsovorliegende Bezug in part leading auf auf indicators Studie immobilienwirt- are discussed zeigt Methoden und schaftliche the prices for raw materials, Ergebnisse Zielgrößen. einer solchenDie transportation, vorliegende within Studie the respective Parameteranalyse, zeigtauf research bezogen Methoden fields. und Above die Zielgröße Ergebnisse the labour market andMarktmiete. energy. einer solchen Parameteranalyse, all in theberücksichtigt Die Datengrundlage bezogen field of real estate auf die Zielgröße research the lead die Wohnungsmärkte Marktmiete. Deutschlands Die in Datengrundlage Städten abtime berücksichtigt is usually 70.000 very short Einwohnern. die and Wohnungsmärkte thus scarcely Deutschlands in Städten ab 70.000 allows Einwohnern. for any timely analysis, decision or re- Derive leading indicators from extended action on the part of the investor. What would cause-effect chains be interesting is a combination of the respec- tive cause-effect chains which are the subject The studies and indicator systems presented of research in both fields. Based on the follo- above show two largely independent re- wing approach the two research areas are to search areas to date: on the one hand there is be considered holistically, and interlinked with extensive real estate market-related research, one another therefore (Fig. 4): COMPACT CAUSAL CHAINS FROM ORIGINAL RESEARCH FIELDS (DEDUCTIVE APPROACH) REAL ESTATE RESEARCH ECONOMIC RESEARCH Real estate value 3Construction costs 3Construction material costs Construction material costs 3Commodity prices Real estate value 3Rent3Purchasing power Purchasing power 3Income 3Employment level 3Production EXTENDED CAUSAL CHAINS FROM COMBINED ECONOMIC AND MARKET RESEARCH (DEDUCTIVE APPROACH) Real estate value 3Construction costs 3Construction material costs 3Commodity prices Real estate value 3Rent 3Purchasing power 3 Income 3Employment level 3Production DIRECT TEST OF CORRELATIONS AND INDICATORS (INDUCTIVE APPROACH) Real estate value 3 [???] 3Commodity prices Real estate value 3 [???] 3Production Fig. 4: Principle for the ascertainment of leading indicators using an inductive approach. 13 2 2
REAL EXPERTS. REAL EXPERTS. REAL VALUES. REAL VALUES. Erklärung Erklärung und und Prognose Prognose von von Wohnungsmieten Wohnungsmieten –– Typically there is a correlation between the a direct inference on the real estate market Bestimmung Bestimmung wesentlicher wesentlicher Einflussfaktoren economic strength of a location and its real (shortening of the causal chains by “skipping” Einflussfaktoren estate market. Although the absolute price the general economic model). mittels mittels Korrelationsanalyse levels for rents and purchase prices cannot Korrelationsanalyse be computed directly from income and purchasing power ratios, because numerous Test of various real estate and location-specific factors such as commuter macroeconomic time series flows, the attractiveness of the city/town, In Zeiten hoher Marktdynamik und steigender Wettbewerbsintensität and real estate offerings In sindZeiten in the hoherlikewise region leistungsfähige Marktdynamik und Analyse steigender In an extensive Systeme der undWettbewerbsintensität indicator test various data se- Entscheidungsunter- have an effect. Abovesind all leistungsfähige the impact of theSysteme ries der are Analyse compared stützung unverzichtbar. Das Immobilien- und Markt-Research und using Entscheidungsunter- correlation analysis. arbeitet regional economic strengthstützung as unverzichtbar. an individual Das For Immobilien- the real und estate dabei insbesondere an den Themen Informationserhebung, Markt-Research market the house arbeitet price Kenn- parameter is often strong dabei insbesondere enough to gene- an den index Themen (HPI) Informationserhebung, and construction zahlenbewertung und Potenzialeinschätzung. Entscheidend ist dabei costs Kenn- index zahlenbewertung rate corresponding amendments die Kenntnis invon und supply Potenzialeinschätzung. (CCI) from in Einflussfaktoren, Eurostat Bezugand Entscheidend auf the aufrent indexist(RI) dabei immobilienwirt- of and demand in the event die Kenntnis of von changes, Einflussfaktoren, and the OECD in for Bezug 14 auf European schaftliche Zielgrößen. Die vorliegende Studie zeigt Methoden und auf realimmobilienwirt- estate markets thus affect real estateschaftliche prices andeiner Ergebnisse Zielgrößen. at a Die rentssolchen were vorliegende used. Parameteranalyse, Studie zeigtauf bezogen Methoden und die Zielgröße Ergebnisse location. The interdependencies einer can in solchen some Parameteranalyse, The macroeconomic bezogen Marktmiete. Die Datengrundlage berücksichtigt die Wohnungsmärkteand auf die Zielgröße socioeconomic cases only partially beMarktmiete. visible and/or Deutschlands Die Datengrundlage in with a ab Städten indicators 70.000berücksichtigt are based ondie Einwohnern. Wohnungsmärkte various data series time lag. Nevertheless, Deutschlands a trend reversal, in Städten for abincl.70.000 on GDP Einwohnern. in real terms, import/export of example in per capita GDP (an expression of goods, private consumption, unemployment the economic strength of the location there- rates, number of working hours per person fore), would also be an important signal for employed, residential construction approvals, the real estate market. haulage and transportation figures (e.g. con- A fundamental benefit of the extension of the tainer transhipment), passenger vehicle regis- real estate market analysis to the upstream trations, prices for raw materials and energy economic and socioeconomic environment is (e.g. coal, diesel, natural gas, aluminium, that interesting ratios, prognosis systems and iron ore), as well as interest rates. Insofar as publications are generally available there in possible country-specific series were utilised, greater numbers, more frequently and earlier in all other cases the relevant world market than for the real estate market in the narrower prices. The primary sources used were the sense. Fundamentally the use of economic publicly-accessible databases of the OECD, forecasts or the components therein for the Eurostat and IndexMundi. The underlying real estate markets has an excellent outlook data were fundamentally available with just a for success. In detail, leading indicators which few exceptions from the year 2000 onwards. are already used in these systems are interes- An overview of the tested parameters is ting. It may be possible to use these to draw shown in Fig. 5. INDICATOR COUNTRIES YEARS SOURCE House price index 14 of 14 2000-2019 Eurostat Construction costs index residenti- 14 of 14 2000-2019 Eurostat al building Rent index 14 of 14 2000-2019 OECD Construction approvals (apart- 14 of 14 2000-2016 Eurostat ments in apartment buildings) GDP (chain-linked volume) 14 of 14 2000-2019 Eurostat Industrial production 14 of 14 2000-2019 OECD Working hours per person 14 of 14 2000-2019 OECD employed 14 2 2
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